Stefanson’s big spending shrinks NDP’s lead in polls, but not by much Tories gain three percentage points in support from December, but change not significant after last-ditch pre-election generosity, experts say By: Carol Sanders Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Monday, Mar. 27, 2023 Last Modified: 11:00 AM CDT Tuesday, Mar. 28, 2023 Updates

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Premier Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservative government has narrowed the NDP’s lead in the polls after delivering tax breaks and big-budget spending, but it’s unlikely to secure them a victory in the next provincial election, experts say.

“The direction is pointing to a more competitive scene,” Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research Inc. said Monday.

The Free Press-Probe survey conducted March 8-20 — immediately after the March 7 provincial budget was tabled — shows that if an election were held tomorrow, the NDP would receive the support of 44 per cent of decided voters compared to 38 per cent for the Tories.

The New Democrats’ lead has shrunk to six points since December when the gap was 11 points at 46 per cent to 35.

The budget’s tax cuts and a subsequent flurry of spending announcements in health care, education and justice, among others, have been labelled by many as a last-ditch effort by the Tories to win over voters ahead of the Oct. 3 election. The strategy barely moved the needle.

“I would’ve expected a narrowing of the gap in light of their changed approach to spending and programs we’ve seen over the past couple of months,” said University of Manitoba political studies professor Christopher Adams.

The Tories’ three-point jump in the polls is not “highly significant” Adams said.

“This might just be statistical noise,” the veteran political analyst said. “It’s a little bit of good news but I suspect not as much good news as they would’ve hoped. It’s better for the PCs to see the NDP’s slight decline rather than a slight increase.”

While Manitobans wait for many promised budget measures to wend their way through the bureaucracy to implementation, bad news — particularly in health care — continues to roll in. Last week the Tories were confronted with the resignation of seven nurses from the sexual assault nurse examiner program at Health Sciences Centre.

Probe’s quarterly survey was conducted at the same time that an “aggressive” Manitoba Nurses Union ad campaign was running, MacKay noted.

“This might just be statistical noise… It’s a little bit of good news but I suspect not as much good news as they would’ve hoped. It’s better for the PCs to see the NDP’s slight decline rather than a slight increase.”–Christopher Adams

The MNU ads highlight problems in health care and feature the slogan, “Vote like your life depends on it.”

“That looks pretty bad for the Tories,” he said.

Shortly before the survey period concluded, the NDP promised free birth control if it wins the provincial election.

“That’s a big story, I think a positive story for the NDP,” MacKay said.

The Tories, meanwhile, have to do more to win over voters in seat-rich Winnipeg if they want to remain in power, both Adams and MacKay said.

In Winnipeg, 53 per cent favour the NDP compared to 30 per cent who’d vote PC, the March poll shows.

The Tories especially need to win over women voters in the city if they want to stay in government, Adams said.

“The Progressive Conservatives are still very vulnerable among women voters in Winnipeg,” he said. “They tend to be a little more worried about health care and education than others.” he said.

The survey showed just 15 per cent of women in Winnipeg would vote Progressive Conservative, compared to 47 per cent support for the NDP.

“When the NDP loses in both Manitoba and Saskatchewan, data shows, it’s when they lose their advantage among women voters,” Adams said, adding that’s how the small-C conservative Saskatchewan Party formed government in 2007 and how former Tory premier Brian Pallister was victorious in 2016.

Pallister appealed to women by softening his image, featuring campaign ads showing women in front of schools and running female candidates in south Winnipeg, such as Janice Morley-Lecomte (Seine River) and Sarah Guillemard (Fort Richmond), Adams said.

“In 2016, it was a different campaign than what his image was when he left office,” he said of Pallister who, when he stepped down as premier in August 2021, was seen by many as a hardline, tight-fisted autocrat.

But having a Winnipeg woman with a more collaborative approach lead the party hasn’t helped the Tories with women voters in the city. For Stefanson to keep the party in government, she’ll have to produce some hard results before the Oct. 3 election, said Adams.

“Right now they need to be implementing many of the things they’ve announced so that when the election occurs, they’ll be able to point to where things are improving,” he said. “That’s the challenge for Manitobans — to feel that what the government has announced is now being put into effect.”

Other parties, meanwhile, haven’t captured the imagination of Manitoba voters.

The survey shows the Green Party — which elected Janine Gibson as its new leader on the weekend — and the Keystone Party of Manitoba with voter support in the low single digits.

MacKay was struck by the drop in support for the provincial Liberals.

“The Liberals now, for the first time, are down into the single digits,” he said.

“The Liberals now, for the first time, are down into the single digits.”–Scott MacKay, Probe Research Inc.

The third party slipped from 13 per cent in December to nine per cent this month. MacKay said falling support for the Liberals here is linked to falling support for the federal Liberal party.

“It has more to do with the brand,” he said, adding he can’t think of a time when the Manitoba Liberals were doing well while the federal Liberals were “in the doghouse.”

“The federal Liberal brand is struggling. I think some of that is carried over to Manitoba.”The provincial NDP typically benefit when the Liberals are weak in the polls, he said.

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca

Carol Sanders
Legislature reporter

Carol Sanders is a reporter at the Free Press legislature bureau. The former general assignment reporter and copy editor joined the paper in 1997. Read more about Carol.

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