Stefanson earns disappointing return on pre-election spending spree, poll suggests Tories’ budget largesse delivers tiny gain in support from December numbers but provides wake-up call for front-running NDP By: Dan Lett Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Monday, Mar. 27, 2023 Last Modified: 11:56 AM CDT Tuesday, Mar. 28, 2023 Updates

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 27/03/2023 (894 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A funny thing happened to the Manitoba New Democrats on their way to a thunderous majority-mandate victory in this year’s provincial election: they got a very subtle reminder that when it comes to politics, it ain’t over till it’s over.

This most-recent reminder comes in the form of the most-recent Free Press-Probe Research quarterly poll results, which shows a small rebound in support for the governing Progressive Conservatives.

Small really is the operative word here.

Provincewide, the NDP leads 44 per cent to 38 per cent; in Winnipeg, it has a much wider margin, 53-30.

In almost all regards, these are still very good numbers for the NDP, which has been the party of choice for most Manitobans since December 2020. However, they also provide a modest measure of hope to the Tories that perhaps the worst days of their precipitous drop in public support are behind them.

You need to squint a bit to pull that interpretation out of these results, but it can be done. And if you’re one of Premier Heather Stefanson’s advisers, the best glass-half-full interpretation would go a little something like this:

The six-point spread between the NDP and Tories provincewide is the narrowest recorded in the Free Press-Probe poll since December 2021, and is considerably more favourable to the government of the day than the 11-point gap in the December 2022 survey.

The premier’s advisers would then remind her that in polling, the actual numbers are often less important than the trend line, and the most-recent results could be an indication that support is rebounding.

Finally, the advisers will note confidently that elections are not won or lost 30 weeks from election day, and that the mere hint of momentum might be enough to energize volunteers, motivate donors and win back some support from Tories who have been estranged since former premier Brian Pallister tried to set fire to his party as he retired from politics.

That might seem like a pretty huge rationalization to attach to a single-opinion survey, but the Tories have little choice. The less-flattering analysis of these numbers offers very little reason for hope.

This survey was conducted March 9-20, immediately after the PC government tabled its last budget before the election. With it’s $1.8 billion in tax cuts and $2 billion in new spending, this budget is Stefanson’s “go-big-or-go-home,” last-ditch bid to claw back support from the NDP.

This survey was conducted March 9-20, immediately after the PC government tabled its last budget before the election. With it’s $1.8 billion in tax cuts and $2 billion in new spending, this budget is Stefanson’s “go-big-or-go-home,” last-ditch bid to claw back support from the NDP.

Although it’s still early days, it definitely appears that her bold gestures have done very little to disrupt the pre-election narrative. In fact, unless something dramatic happens over the spring and summer, it appears the Tories have spent $3.8 billion for what appears to be only a modest rebound in support.

At this point, the Tories will have to hope budget measures — particularly education property tax rebates and improvements in the performance of the health-care system — will somehow continue to eat into the NDP’s lead. Meanwhile, they will have to lean heavily into pre-campaign messaging to keep rank-and-file supporters engaged.

Political parties may spend heavily on billboards, radio and television ads and flyers to push their campaign narratives, but elections are won or lost often by the unseen armies of volunteers who canvass door to door and do the heavy spadework on voter identification and turnout.

If those volunteers are demoralized by unfavourable polling results, fewer doors get knocked on, fewer donations are solicited and fewer voter-identification calls are made in the leadup to election day. It may be that fewer hard-core Tories show up to vote.

There is one other inconvenient truth from this survey the Tories will have to confront at some point: numbers such as these can actually be a benefit to the NDP.

The NDP has been out in front for so long there is a risk that rank-and-file supporters will begin to accept that the electoral result is preordained regardless of what kind of effort they put in during the campaign. Overconfidence is as much the enemy of a political party as a chronic absence of confidence.

It should be noted that some within the NDP fold believe overconfidence may have been a determining factor in December’s Kirkfield Park byelection.

It should be noted that some within the NDP fold believe overconfidence may have been a determining factor in December’s Kirkfield Park byelection.

The NDP went into that vote as arguably the favourite to capture the west Winnipeg riding. Although it has been a Tory seat since 2016, it was held by the New Democrats under Gary Doer’s leadership. With the Tories facing crises on the health-care file, there was every reason to believe it could snatch Kirkfield Park and extinguish any hope among Tories.

It was a close race, but Tory candidate Kevin Klein, trading heavily on publicity he received in the fall’s mayoral election, was able to barely hang on for the win. The NDP was left wondering what could have been.

It was a painful reminder to the NDP that even when all the polling numbers and trend lines are going your way, there is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to an election.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.