NDP slip shows long way to go before possible victory party

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 20/06/2023 (810 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

There has always been a profound defining line in the political punditry that has accompanied the lead-up to the 2023 Manitoba general election: there are pundits who talk about “when” the NDP wins the election; and those satisfied to talk about “if” the Opposition New Democrats unseat the Progressive Conservatives.

I am happy to report I am in the latter group.

The rationale was pretty simple: nobody wins an election in pre-election polling. Many parties leading the polls months out from a vote do go on to win, but they can’t be awarded the win based on the strength of support in pre-election surveys.

More importantly, political history has shown the closer you get to election day, the tighter the race becomes. (Not always, but most always.)

The most recent Free Press-Probe Research Inc. poll may be the start of the tightening.

It shows the NDP and PCs now deadlocked with 41 per cent support; the Liberals trail badly with only 10 per cent and the Greens with five per cent.

The results represent a three-point slide for the NDP, and an equal bump up for the Tories.

The good news for the NDP — although not quite as good as past polls — is the current official Opposition still has a significant lead in Winnipeg, with the support of 48 per cent of decided voters (the Tories were at 32 per cent).

However, the trend line is positive for Premier Heather Stefanson: this most recent poll has Tory support in Winnipeg up two percentage points, and NDP support down five.

The remaining analysis of the electorate by gender, age, education and income remains more or less the same.

The governing PCs are more popular among men, older Manitobans, and those without university education; the NDP are more popular among younger voters, women, and those with post-secondary education.

What does it all mean?

First and foremost, despite the NDP’s dominant standing in previous Free Press-Probe Research polls, there have always been reasons to believe this will be a very close election.

What elements could combine and ultimately deny the NDP a huge comeback victory this fall?

You can start with the fact, by Manitoba standards, the NDP haven’t been out of power long enough for people to forget the raging dumpster fire of a government that was thrashed by the Tories in 2016.

Most governing parties that suffer that kind of defeat typically need a decade in opposition to wash the bad taste out of the mouths of voters.

Another mitigating factor is the NDP’s largely unproven ground game.

Even parties that enter elections with huge leads in opinion polls need an effective campaign strategy, with a particular focus on get-out-the-vote mechanics. If you cannot identify supporters and motivate them to get out and cast a ballot, you are destined to fall short of even the loftiest pre-election poll results.

The challenge for the NDP this year is rebuilding its election machinery.

Following the 2016 electoral disaster, the NDP shed just about all of the strategists who helped it triumph when Gary Doer was the leader. The history-making Tory win was proof enough the NDP were simply outmatched, both financially and strategically.

Disappointing results in the last two provincial byelections — races where Tory-held seats were ripe for the plucking — show there is more work to do.

The most recent poll results have strong messages for both the Tories and NDP.

For the Tories, it is a reminder they are still suffering from six years of very poor performance.

The ongoing crisis in health care and the inability to provide timely priority surgical and diagnostic services is gnawing at the nerves of many. At the very least, the Tories will be concerned every Manitoban waiting for hip/knee or cataract surgery is a voter looking for a chance for electoral payback.

So, too, are lingering conflicts with public-sector unions; right now, more than 17,000 public servants at Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries Corp., Manitoba Public Insurance and provincial colleges are without a contract and preparing for a strike vote.

This is a common story for unions abused by then-premier Brian Pallister. Given the vast majority of these public servants live and work in Winnipeg, the Tories are looking at a capital city electorate that may have a bit of a chip on its collective shoulder.

The most recent poll results do not change the current dynamic of Manitoba politics.

The PC government is unpopular and desperate to buy back the love of voters (both literally and figuratively). The NDP is trying to hone its strategy to take advantage of historic opportunity created for it by the Tories.

Most importantly, the poll results confirm we are still very much in the realm of if and nowhere near when.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com