Tory surge should give NDP kick in the pants

Opinion

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This article was published 22/06/2023 (807 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A Probe Research Inc. poll released this week on provincial voting intentions is just what the doctor ordered for Manitoba’s New Democratic Party.

While the latest polling numbers show the governing Progressive Conservative party has narrowed the gap in Winnipeg — where elections are won and lost in Manitoba — it’s a reminder to the NDP to avoid complacency in the run-up to the Oct. 3 election.

The Tories have lagged behind the NDP by 22 to 33 percentage points in Winnipeg for nine consecutive quarterly polls dating back to March 2021. The PC party doesn’t win elections in Manitoba when it’s that far behind in Winnipeg, home to 32 of 57 seats in Manitoba’s legislative assembly.

This week’s Probe results show the Tories have narrowed the gap to 16 percentage points. However, it’s still nowhere near enough for the PC party to eke out a victory. Unless that gap narrows further, the Tories will likely lose on Oct. 3, even though they are tied provincewide with the NDP at 41 per cent.

“With 16 points separating the parties in the city, I don’t think 41 per cent (across the province) is enough for the Tories to win an election,” said Probe president Scott MacKay. “The Tories have such overkill in rural ridings.”

Still, the Probe numbers are trending in the right direction for Premier Heather Stefanson (although a recent Angus Reid poll also shows the PC party is still 25 percentage points behind in Winnipeg).

What this week’s Probe poll does for the NDP is re-energize its base. It’s not that the party has been making premature plans to hold celebration parties, as some have wrongly suggested. It’s well known elections are won and lost during campaigns. However, complacency can creep in for political parties during prolonged periods of favourable polling.

Polls capture moments in time. They suggest how people may vote if an election were held at the time the survey was taken. Polls also show trends, which provide insight into voting patterns for upcoming elections. The longer and stronger the trend, the more meaningful the prognostication.

In the months leading up to the 2019 provincial election, Probe polls showed the Tories and the NDP neck-and-neck in Winnipeg for eight consecutive quarterly surveys. Not surprisingly, the Tories and the NDP were virtually tied in popular support in the capital city on election night. The two-year polling trend served as an accurate predictor.

A tie for the Tories in Winnipeg is usually enough for them to win an election because they dominate rural Manitoba. Right now, they’re nowhere near tying the NDP in Winnipeg. They haven’t been for more than two years.

The question is, will the recent uptick for the Tories in Winnipeg grow or fizzle? No one knows the answer to that.

The mistrust of the Tories in their funding and management of health care, public schools and other front-line services is significant. The funding cuts in those areas, which led to long wait times, severe hospital staffing shortages and reductions in core public school services remains top of mind with voters.

The Stefanson government has opened the purse strings this year. However, many voters likely wonder whether the Tories would return to their cost cutting ways if re-elected. That’s a narrative the NDP is pushing in its pre-campaign messaging. It’s an effective communications strategy because it has credibility.

Stefanson may have recently increased spending in key areas in 2023 in the months leading up to an election, but she continued to underfund hospitals, public schools and infrastructure during her first year in the premier’s chair. She also retained most of the policies brought in by her predecessor, former premier Brian Pallister, including widespread tax cuts while the province is borrowing to finance operating deficits.

Some of the worst policy decisions in health care occurred when Stefanson was health minister. It’s not something voters will easily forget.

Which is why the NDP will spend most of its time reminding voters of that record, while trying to convince them the Tories would likely revert back to austerity mode if given the chance.

This week’s Probe poll gives the Tories a glimmer of hope that they could make further progress in Winnipeg. They will try to build on that.

The polling results also act as a wake-up call for the NDP to up their game. That’s not a bad thing for a party that wasn’t exactly measuring the drapes in the cabinet room, but could use a Yogi Berra reminder that it ain’t over till it’s over.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca