Less vote splitting predicted with fewer Liberal, Green nominees

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This article was published 13/09/2023 (769 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

AN absence of Liberal or Green party candidates in some key provincial ridings could work out in the NDP’s favour when Manitoba’s general election is held Oct. 3, according to a longtime political analyst.

After nominations closed Monday, the incumbent Progressive Conservatives and NDP have candidates in all 57 constituencies, while the Liberals (49) and Green party (13) have fewer nominees than they did in the 2019 contest.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, said the NDP could gain votes from traditional Liberal or Green supporters in electoral districts where their party of choice isn’t running a candidate.

“If there are some razor-thin outcomes, then that could affect it,” he said Tuesday.

Adams expects Liberal voters to support the NDP in ridings without a Liberal candidate. He said Green supporters would likely pick the Liberals or NDP as their second choice.

The Liberals, who had a full slate of candidates in 2019, will not be on the ballot in Brandon West, Dauphin, Dawson Trail, Flin Flon, Lac du Bonnet, Red River North, Selkirk and Swan River.

While most are regarded as safe seats for the PCs or NDP, Dauphin and Selkirk are projected to be among the swing ridings in Manitoba’s 43rd general election.

Dauphin is a head-to-head race between NDP candidate Ron Kostyshyn and Tory nominee Gord Wood.

“That’s a riding where things could be very close,” said Adams. “That’s one of the targeted ridings that could have an impact.”

In 2019, the PCs defeated the NDP by just 773 votes, while the Liberal candidate finished third with 675 votes.

The riding was an NDP stronghold for decades before Brad Michaleski won it for the PCs in 2016. He decided not to seek a third term in 2023.

Selkirk is also a two-horse race, between Richard Perchotte of the PCs and Mitch Obach of the NDP. (Tory incumbent Alan Lagimodiere isn’t seeking re-election.)

Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont said his party interviewed “many times more” than 49 potential candidates and could have had a full slate.

He said it’s a challenge to find candidates for every constituency.

“It’s important to us that we’re running the strongest possible campaigns where we are, where we can, and this enables us to focus on that,” Lamont told reporters at a campaign event in Winnipeg. “I would like to run 57, but I also don’t want to overextend our own team.

“The reality is that none of the parties runs serious campaigns in every single constituency, but if you look at our candidates, we have incredibly strong candidates who compete.”

Adams said hostility toward Liberals in some parts of Manitoba could have factored into the party’s shortage of candidates.

Lamont cited an “ongoing hate campaign” against Liberals at all political levels. He said some candidates’ election signs have been vandalized.

He also acknowledged some potential candidates were turned away while being vetted.

NDP Leader Wab Kinew refused to say whether he thinks the lack of Liberal or Green candidates will help his party.

“We have a very strong team and the candidates who have stepped up to sacrifice time away from their families and put their name on a ballot just sends such a message of inspiration that the Manitoba NDP is ready to lead,” Kinew said at a campaign event.

“I’m never going to take the work of earning the support of people in Selkirk and Dauphin and other communities for granted. That ‘one vote behind’ mentality says that we have to go out and earn the support.”

After a showing of 43 candidates in 2019, the Green party will have just 13 next month.

“People don’t have the same kind of time for the volunteer work,” said Janine Gibson, party leader since March. “Some had health issues or insufficient family or community supports to donate the time.”

Gibson doesn’t believe any particular party will benefit from the absence of Green candidates. She said the Greens draw support from across the political spectrum.

“I think that it’s a shame that we don’t have the kind of diversity on the ballot that Manitobans deserve,” she said.

A few swing ridings in Winnipeg will be without Green candidates this time. They include McPhillips and Southdale, which the Tories won by just 88 and 483 votes, respectively, four years ago.

Elections Manitoba said 189 candidates are running for the legislature’s 57 seats. The 2019 election had 235 candidates.

The Keystone and Communist parties each have five candidates. Three people are running as independents.

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Elections Manitoba said the Manitoba Party will be de-registered, after it did not nominate five candidates.

The PCs had 35 seats at dissolution of the legislature, while the NDP had 18 and the Liberals three. One seat was vacant.

— with files from Danielle Da Silva

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @chriskitching

Chris Kitching
Reporter

Chris Kitching is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He began his newspaper career in 2001, with stops in Winnipeg, Toronto and London, England, along the way. After returning to Winnipeg, he joined the Free Press in 2021, and now covers a little bit of everything for the newspaper. Read more about Chris.

Every piece of reporting Chris produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.