It’s not beginning to look a lot like… With 7 C in forecast, white Christmas may be dream By: Nicole Buffie Posted: 5:42 PM CST Monday, Dec. 4, 2023 Last Modified: 7:38 AM CST Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023 Updates

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Winnipeggers hoping for a white Christmas may have to settle for a brown one, instead.

If mild temperatures and below-average snowfall continue, this will be the first December holiday without snow since 1997 — and only the fifth on record since statistic-keeping began in 1872, said Scott Kehler, president and chief scientist at Weatherlogics.

“The idea of us having a really big dump of snow before Christmas is, right now, not looking too likely unless things change quite a bit,” he said.

Typically, the month of November brings 14.7 days of temperatures above 0 C, but this year there were 22, according to Natalie Hasell, a warning preparedness meteorologist for Environment and Climate Change Canada.

The mild weather isn’t expected to vanish, either.

“I don’t have a forecast that suggests we have another system coming through, or an organized system coming through after (the snow) we see later this week,” Hasell said.

Temperatures are expected to hit 7 C by Wednesday, with some snow expected by the end of the week, Hasell said.

Without a visual cue of the upcoming season, some shoppers have held off on purchasing seasonal wares.

Lee Galindo, general manager at Schriemers Market Centre, saw business for Christmas trees and outdoor floral arrangements pick up just this past weekend.

Many customers get their trees early and store them outside until they’re ready to dress them, but mild temperatures have disrupted the trend.

“A lot of those people that would come the last week in November, they didn’t come at all, because why are you going to have it outside when it’s going to thaw out right away?” Galindo said.

On average, the greenhouse sells between five and a dozen balsam firs per day and is out of stock by the first week of December. This year, its schedule has been pushed back.

“We were only selling maybe four to five trees a day for the first couple of weeks. And then on Saturday, we sold probably 50 or 60.”

“We were only selling maybe four to five trees a day for the first couple of weeks. And then on Saturday, we sold probably 50 or 60.”–Lee Galindo

The warm weather system can be attributed to El Nino, when the central Pacific Ocean has water temperatures that create a warm-weather pattern over the western half of Canada, Kehler said.

The balmy forecast doesn’t come as welcome news to Karin McSherry, executive director of the Cross Country Ski Association of Manitoba, but seeing green in December is not unprecedented, either.

Most years the ski season begins the first week of the month, and only two seasons in the last 20 have debuted in early January, McSherry said. Six over the last two decades have opened in late December.

“It’s not the first time that we’ve waited for the ski season to begin… so no one’s panicking,” she said.

At Asessippi Ski Resort in western Manitoba, opening day for the slopes has been pushed back to Dec. 15 instead of Saturday, owing to the mild temperatures, said sales manager Kendra Sitko.

Meanwhile, business has been steady, but not exactly booming at Sampson’s Sporting Life.

“We’re looking forward to having a white Christmas, that definitely gets people in a different frame of mind,” said Dean Sampson, owner of the Pembina Highway sporting goods shop.

While downhill and cross-country ski sales are normal for this time of year, purchases of everyday wares haven’t been up to snuff.

“Local people that are looking for a winter jacket — a lot of those people are holding off because, well, it’s not cold, so they’re not even getting the winter jackets out,” said Sampson.

“That customer who’s just needing it or was thinking about replacing it for winter, they’re holding off waiting to see if we get snow because if (the wait for cold weather) gets long enough, some of those customers just turn around and say they’ll wait till next year.”

After an early snow cover in late October, Environment Canada recorded 15 millimetres of precipitation on Nov. 7 in Winnipeg. Since then, no notable amount of snow has stuck, Hasell said.

“There are a lot of people who like winter sports, who, right now I’m sure are feeling quite deceived,” Hasell said.

For the skiers, dryland training — running, roller-skiing and other cross-training methods — will have to do for now.

“I mean, what can you do? Cry?” McSherry quipped.

The association is also looking at purchasing a snow-making machine for the Windsor Park Nordic Centre to make up for years there’s fewer groomed trails.

For retailers, Galindo said Schriemers will donate what it can’t sell to shelters and refugee families spending their first Christmas in Canada. As for sporting goods, Sampson said he’s confident stuff will move off the shelves once the flakes fall.

“It’s Manitoba — we’re gonna get it eventually.”

nicole.buffie@freepress.mb.ca