Poll shows NDP posts strong support post-election

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This article was published 10/12/2023 (644 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Premier Wab Kinew is so popular that if an election were held today, his New Democratic Party might do even better than the election two months ago.

A Free Press-Probe Research poll shows Kinew and his party have the support of 51 per cent of Manitobans, up from the 45 per cent they garnered in the Oct. 3 election, which gave them a majority government with 34 of 57 seats.

“It is certainly a honeymoon phase for the government,” University of Manitoba political studies adjunct professor Christopher Adams said. “It is kind of hard to believe, but it shows people like the outcome of the election because the NDP are now six points higher than election day.

The party’s numbers are even brighter in the capital city, where it took a whopping 28 of the 32 seats.

The NDP now has the support of almost six in 10 Winnipeggers, or 59 per cent, up from 52 per cent on election day.

The party is in the lead in all areas of the city, including 50 per cent in the outer suburbs, long considered bastions of Tory support. The Tories are at 35 per cent in those areas.

“The Winnipeg advantage for the NDP is quite colossal. They have really solidified their urban support.”

On the flip side, the Progressive Conservatives under leader Heather Stefanson, the former premier, have the support of 38 per cent of Manitobans, down four per cent from their election day tally.

The Liberal Party of Manitoba, which saw leader Dougald Lamont and longtime MLA Jon Gerrard lose their seats to the NDP, is at seven per cent support across the province, down from 11 per cent in the election. It retained only one of its three seats.

Adams believes the NDP’s decision to open cabinet offices in the Pembina Valley region and Brandon has bolstered their rural numbers.

The poll shows that while the Tories still have the support of 50 per cent of voters outside Winnipeg, it is down from the 56 per cent the party received on election day. Meantime, rural support for the NDP jumped by four per cent to 40 per cent.

“Manitobans overall are quite happy with what happened in the election,” Adams said.

Probe Research president Scott MacKay said a honeymoon period for a new government “is pretty typical.”

MacKay said the numbers mirror an Angus Reid poll earlier in the week that ranked Kinew the most popular premier in the country.

“How long it lasts will be seen, but there won’t be an election for a long time,” he said.

It’s in stark contrast to former Tory premiers Brian Pallister and Heather Stefanson, who were cellar dwellers in national rankings of popular support.

Other poll results show the NDP has the support of six in 10 women, as opposed to just three in 10 for the PCs.

Among younger adults, the NDP has 56 per cent while the Tories have 31 per cent.

As well, while they voted for different candidates and parties, and still have some concerns, 51 per cent of Tory voters and 57 per cent of Liberal supporters say they remain willing to give the new government a chance to prove itself.

MacKay said while the NDP rode to victory by promising a raft of measures — to reopen emergency rooms, reduce surgical wait times, temporarily cut the gas tax, and continue rebating residential education property tax — few believe they will be able to deliver. Interestingly, they don’t appear to care if the promises aren’t kept.

“When you look at expectations and the promises made in the election, you see a change in tone,” he said.

“There’s more cynicism about promises being kept. There are only small numbers of people who expect them to honour these pledges.”

The poll found 23 per cent of Manitobans don’t think the NDP will be able to reduce wait times for health procedures; 15 per cent believe emergency rooms at the Victoria, Concordia and Seven Oaks hospitals will remain closed.

MacKay said the poll also found only one in five poll respondents believed the NDP would go through with its gas-tax holiday. Turns out, the governing party delivered the promise by passing legislation last week. The 14-cent per lite will be removed as of Jan. 1.

“Kinew keeps saying he feels an obligation to meet these promises, but the public is saying they don’t really expect them to,” MacKay said.

The poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults was taken from Nov. 22 to Dec. 1. The poll is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 95 per cent of the time.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca