Winnipeg cool to Poilievre’s Tories

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This article was published 25/03/2024 (590 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are going gangbusters in parts of Manitoba, but it seems the party’s “axe the tax” appeal against the Liberals’ carbon pricing hasn’t resonated with Winnipeg voters.

If a federal election were held today, a new poll suggests it would be status quo for the federal Tories in Manitoba’s capital, even as it leads in polls across the country almost two years before an election.

The Free Press-Probe Research poll pegs support for the Poilievre team at 38 per cent in Winnipeg — the same result the party tallied during the last election in 2021, under the leadership of Erin O’Toole.

The NDP garnered 31 per cent, up four points from 2021. Liberal support dropped by only one percentage point to 28 per cent.

“It’s not quite the blowout for the Tories, especially in Winnipeg, that maybe some of the national polls would assume,” said Mary Agnes Welch, a principal at Probe, on Friday.

“It’s not a perfectly open path to victory even in the suburban ridings.”

As Canadians cope with rising prices, the Tories have amped up attacks on the Liberal government for its carbon pricing scheme, especially as it’s set to increase April 1. The price on carbon has increased annually since being imposed in 2019, when it was $20 per tonne. It will rise to $80 per tonne next month.

It’s been paying off for Poilievre: a recent Leger poll put his party’s support at 41 per cent, while the Grits were at 25 per cent and the NDP trailed at 18 per cent.

Welch said there will be white-knuckle races in key city ridings: Elmwood-Transcona, where NDP MP Daniel Blaikie recently announced he is stepping down to work for Premier Wab Kinew; Winnipeg South, where Liberal MP Terry Duguid will have to engage in hand-to-hand combat to retain the swing riding; and Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, where Northern Affairs Minister Dan Vandal can’t depend on dialing it in.

“It has gone Tory in the past,” she said about Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, which was held by former police officer Shelley Glover from 2008 to 2015.

Across Manitoba, it’s Tory blue: the party has the support of 47 per cent — a jump of eight points from the 2021 election. Support for the right-wing People’s Party of Canada has shifted to the Tory team.

The poll puts support for independent parties at a paltry one per cent, down from eight per cent in 2021.

Provincewide, the NDP is at 26 per cent (up three percentage points) while the Liberals are at 23 per cent (down five points). Sixteen per cent of Manitobans said they were undecided.

If Winnipeg were taken out of the equation, the Conservatives rake in 61 per cent of decided voters (what it received in the 2019 election), while the NDP has 19 per cent and the Liberals 16 per cent, (both about the same as the 2021 election).

Vandal, who will fight for the seat a fourth time since 2015, said “the election is a year and a half away” and he is not fretting just yet.

“As the dates get closer, Canadians are going to ask what kind of Canada do we want. Do we want a Canada that has good health care, child care, dental care? (Are) we advancing on pharmacare, good public services that Canadians need? Or do we want a Canada led by Poilievre’s Conservative party that will focus on austerity and cuts, cuts, cuts?

“Canadians will have that very focused discussion and are going to make a decision that I don’t think reflects the polling numbers today.”

Having said that, Vandal, a former professional boxer, said he’s prepared to go the distance.

“I’m totally confident, as I always am, but my colleagues across the country have to work hard… and engage Canadians and make sure we deliver on those important things: health care, child care, dental care, the environment of course is front and centre, and reconciliation is front and centre.”

The Free Press requested to speak to senior Manitoba Tory MP James Bezan, who was first elected in 2004, but a Conservative party spokesperson said the request had be to sent to Poilievre’s office for review.

Paul Thomas, University of Manitoba political studies professor emeritus, said the governing party, despite Leader Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity, still has an advantage in Manitoba.

“(They) have concentrated strength,” he said. “Their support is not spread out, it is in central and south Winnipeg. That’s what is holding up their numbers. It’s Ben Carr’s seat, (Terry) Duguid’s and (Dan) Vandal’s.”

Carr represents Winnipeg South Centre.

Thomas said the federal NDP is reaping benefits from the honeymoon currently being enjoyed by the new Manitoba government.

“They have the most popular premier in the country, and they have been governing successfully,” he said. “That may have helped the NDP in part.”

Kelly Saunders, an associate political science professor at Brandon University, said the Probe poll shows Manitobans lean to the middle and don’t support parties that veer too far to the right.

“We’re more like Ontario with our political culture than Alberta and Saskatchewan,” Saunders said. “We’re not being dominated by Conservatives, we’re more centrist, and these numbers bear this out.

“We’re not seeing a groundswell of support going to the Conservatives.”

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca