Tuxedo byelection timing more trouble for Tories

Opinion

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This article was published 20/05/2024 (501 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Premier Wab Kinew clearly knows that in politics, timing is everything.

On the Monday of the Victoria Day long weekend, Kinew announced a byelection would be held June 18 for the Winnipeg riding of Tuxedo, a seat vacated just three weeks ago by the resignation of former premier and Progressive Conservative leader Heather Stefanson.

It should be noted that by law, Kinew did not have to call a byelection until the fall. His decision to go sooner, rather than later, suggests the premier smells a rare opportunity to take down one of the safest Tory seats in the province.

Prior to last fall’s general election, the idea of the NDP winning Tuxedo was preposterous; since it was formed in 1981, Tuxedo has been held by Tories.

However, a lack of popular support going into the election, and an exceedingly toxic campaign that employed anti-LGBTTQ+ and anti-Indigenous messaging to cultivate more far-right voters, added up to electoral disaster for the Tories. Kinew’s NDP won a majority mandate with 34 seats, an increase of 16 seats, while Stefanson’s Tories dropped to 22, a loss of 13 seats.

In Tuxedo, Stefanson spent election night watching anxiously as NDP candidate Larissa Ashdown came within 268 votes of toppling the Tory stronghold.

All things being equal, one election does not necessarily mean Tuxedo is up for grabs. However, when you look at the underlying conditions in the current political environment, the stars are not lining up well for the Tories.

First, this byelection will take place with the NDP still very much within the honeymoon period after last fall’s election. Waging electoral battle in a riding it nearly won, at a time when voters are still smitten with Kinew, is about as good as it’s going to get for the NDP in Tuxedo.

On the other side of the equation, the Tories enter the byelection facing several important disadvantages, not least of which is the possibility that last fall’s election may have altered the profile of the riding.

Consider that while province-wide voter turnout did not increase, there was a two-point bump in turnout in Tuxedo. Put another way, Tuxedo voters showed up in greater numbers to vote against Stefanson and the Tories.

It’s worth also noting the NDP spent just $1,500 on its Tuxedo campaign. That means, with no disrespect to NDP candidate Larissa Ashdown, the New Democrats just put a name on a ballot and did very little campaigning. And still came close to winning.

With this byelection taking place just six months after the provincial election, there is a chance the Tories could end up facing a significant number of voters still hell bent on punishing the Tories for last fall’s toxic campaign.

The grief for the Tories in Tuxedo does not end there.

The NDP are also no doubt aware the Liberal party, which received 2,200 votes last fall, is currently in disarray following the defeat of leader Dougald Lamont. It’s unlikely the leaderless Liberals will be as successful in this byelection at splitting the anti-PC vote in Tuxedo.

All these underlying factors makes you wonder: should Stefanson have delayed her resignation?

When Stefanson pulled the plug, the Tories had already decided to delay a leadership campaign until April 2025. The additional runway is designed to ensure the party benefits from a longer, more robust leadership campaign.

As a theoretically safe Tory seat, it would have been ideal for Stefanson to stay longer to create some distance from last fall’s election. And to hold on to the seat in the event the next leader of the party comes from outside the current elected caucus.

The Tories have some experience timing resignations to aid incoming, non-MLA leaders.

Former Tory cabinet minister Eric Stefanson waited nearly a year after the 1999 election loss to the NDP before resigning his Kirkfield Park seat. Given the humiliation of losing to Gary Doer’s New Democrats, no one could have blamed Stefanson for wanting to leave sooner.

But Stefanson hung in and timed his resignation perfectly so that Stuart Murray, within weeks of being acclaimed leader, could run in a Kirkfield Park byelection and, without skipping a beat, lead his party in the fall 2000 legislative sitting.

There will be no fortuitous timing this time around.

None of the circumstances outlined above mean the Tories are certain, or even likely, to lose Tuxedo. Turnout in byelections can be less than half of that seen in a general election.

It should also be noted that after Stefanson unleashed an ugly and divisive campaign on the province, enough voters in Tuxedo showed up to re-elect her.

And there is always the possibility that, should someone outside caucus get elected leader, another Tory MLA will be willing to give up their seat to create an opening.

However, in calling the byelection now, Kinew has ensured the PC party has a somewhat steeper hill to climb to keep Tuxedo.

And a steeper hill is not what the Tories need right now.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com