Tories have much to lose in Tuxedo

Opinion

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This article was published 27/05/2024 (493 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Byelections don’t usually reveal much about the state of affairs in provincial politics, especially when one is held so soon after a general election.

However, the results of an upcoming byelection in the Winnipeg riding of Tuxedo may have more significance than usual.

Premier Wab Kinew announced Monday that a byelection to replace former Progressive Conservative premier Heather Stefanson – who resigned her Tuxedo seat on May 6 – will be held on June 18.

The riding has traditionally been a safe seat for the Tories. It was held by former Tory premier Gary Filmon in the 1980s and 1990s and by Ms. Stefanson from 2000 to 2024. PC candidates normally win the riding with a plurality of well over 1,000 votes or more.

But that did not happen in last fall’s provincial election.

After being widely criticized for running a toxic election campaign that included anti-LGBTTQ+ and anti-Indigenous messaging, Ms. Stefanson and the Tories won the seat by only 268 votes. NDP candidate Larissa Ashdown finished a close second.

The shift in voting patterns in Tuxedo was indicative of a broader collapse for the PCs in Winnipeg. The party was nearly wiped off the electoral map in the capital city, winning only three seats and coming close to losing Tuxedo.

The party can’t afford to lose any more ground in Winnipeg, which makes next month’s byelection more critical than usual.

The Tories still represent most ridings in southern rural Manitoba. But without moderate support in Winnipeg, the party remains relegated to the opposition benches. The PCs must typically win half, or close to half, of the seats in Winnipeg to form government.

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The Tuxedo byelection is an opportunity for the Tories to regain the support they lost in that riding last year. To do so, they must convince voters that the negative messaging they used during the 2023 election campaign was a mistake and does not reflect the values of most party members. If the party can do that, it has a chance of re-establishing the riding as a Tory stronghold.

For the NDP, the Tuxedo byelection is an opportunity to broaden its base in Winnipeg at the expense of its political opponents. That won’t be easy for a party that has never won the riding.

Still, the NDP is well positioned to build on last year’s success. The party under Premier Wab Kinew has so far governed from the middle of the political spectrum. The NDP government has ramped up spending in key areas such as health care and education but has also brought in tax cuts and pledged to balance the budget within its first term in office. The latter may help the party garner support in a riding such as Tuxedo, which has traditionally embraced fiscal conservative policies.

The Tories have more to lose than the NDP has to gain in the Tuxedo byelection. An NDP win would be considered a major upset and a significant setback for the Tories. The PC party is still in the early stages of rebuilding its organization and is trying to reconnect with voters who were turned off by last year’s election campaign tactics. A loss in Tuxedo would undermine those efforts.

The Tuxedo byelection will have virtually no impact on the balance of power in the legislative assembly, where the NDP enjoy a strong majority with 34 out of 57 seats. But it could say a lot about the future of the PC party should the Tories lose the contest.