Bombers hold fate in their own hands

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This article was published 24/10/2024 (354 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

MONTREAL — The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have one final chance to complete their magical turnaround when they pay a visit to Montreal Saturday to play the Alouettes at Molson Stadium in the regular season finale for both clubs.

With a victory, the Bombers would finish the season 11-7, enough to stave off the Saskatchewan Roughriders and capture the West Division for a fourth year in a row. Few could have imagined Winnipeg would be controlling its destiny at this or any point of the season after starting the year 0-4 and then 2-6 at nearly the midway mark of the campaign.

What followed, however, was a winning streak that would last eight games, pushing the Bombers to a much more respectable 10-6. A ninth consecutive victory over the Toronto Argonauts in Week 19 would have sealed the West, but the Argos had other plans, delivering Winnipeg a 14-11 loss before the Bombers headed out on their final bye week.

The Blue and Gold are now back and well rested, ready to take on an Alouettes club they haven’t seen since the opening week of the season, with Montreal taking that one 27-12, on the road no less. The Bombers have said it all week and will now look to show the Alouettes just how much they have improved since then.

Let’s dig even deeper into this one in the latest edition of 5 Storylines.

PLAYOFF PICTURE

All week players have been talking about wanting to win the West on their own accord and that, of course, would mean beating the Alouettes.

Even if the Blue and Gold lose, they can still win the division with a Saskatchewan Roughriders loss or tie against the Calgary Stampeders, with that game being played immediately afterward. If the Bombers lose and the Riders win, Saskatchewan will take first place by one point.

The Bombers know better than anyone the importance of winning your division, notably the first-round bye to the West Final, which they would also host. Finishing second would also result in a home playoff game, but for the West semifinal, where the Bombers would need to win before battling their prairie rival in enemy territory the following week.

As for the Alouettes, they’re weeks removed from clinching the East Division, making Saturday’s game meaningless in the standings. Montreal will host the winner of the East semifinal, between the Argos and visiting Ottawa Redblacks in the divisional final on Nov. 9.

REST VS. RUST

There’s no doubt the Bombers will be dressing their full lineup, with every healthy starter expected to be ready to play a full 60 minutes. There’s also a chance the Bombers could get a few healthy bodies back, with LB Michael Ayers (hip), DB Michael Griffin (calf) and OL Gabe Wallace all practising in full this week.

It’s a bit of unchartered territory for the Blue and Gold, who haven’t been forced to play all their best players in the final regular season game for several seasons. That has allowed them to rest key players or anyone dealing with the bumps and bruises of a long season.

That’s once again moved the rest vs. rust debate front and centre. There really is no perfect strategy, and there’s no better proof than looking at the Bombers’ mixed results over their run of fourth consecutive Grey Cup appearances.

In the last two years, the Bombers either rested several players, as was the case last season, or limited a majority of their stars to a quarter or half of play, which was the plan in 2022. The Bombers ended up losing both championship games.

Compare that to the 2019 campaign, when the Bombers didn’t need to play their full roster in their final game, having already taken third place, but they did so because they had a bye week in the final game of the regular season and didn’t want some guys to be cold for the West semifinal. They would go on to win the Grey Cup with three consecutive road victories, but the approach was the equivalent of resting players in the final week before the start of playoffs had they finished first, only this way adds another game to the mix.

In 2021, after the cancelled season owing to COVID-19, the Bombers rested several players in the final game after locking up first place. They would go on to win a second Grey Cup in a row, but rest wouldn’t have been as big an issue in a season that was already shortened owing to the pandemic.

FINDING THEIR GROOVE

It’s been an interesting exercise all week trying to figure out how the Alouettes will field their roster. As mentioned, they’ve already wrapped up the East, but the word is they’ll be going with several of their key starters.

Rest doesn’t seem to be the main priority in Montreal, despite boasting the top record in the CFL, the Alouettes haven’t looked like a league leader over the past month or so. They’re coming off a 27-3 road loss to the B.C. Lions and have two wins in their last six games, both coming against the struggling Redblacks.

The Alouettes are going to want to recapture their groove from earlier in the season, and while that might be a tall order with just one meaningless game ahead of the playoffs, it’s still important they take a step in the right direction. Montreal would also be playing spoiler in the process, with a win hurting the Bombers chances of having a much easier route to the Grey Cup.

If the Alouettes believe Winnipeg is their biggest threat of claiming back-to-back league titles — after all, it was the Bombers they defeated on a last-second drive in last year’s Grey Cup — then it might be to their benefit to give it their all. More likely, we see several regular starters begin the game before exiting after a half or so of play.

MOP RACE

Bombers running back Brady Oliveira is already a front-runner to win the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player award after narrowly missing out on it last season. He’ll get one final chance against the Alouettes to build his case.

The Winnipeg native leads the CFL with 1,318 rushing yards and has set a personal season-high for receptions with 54, adding another 465 to his yards from scrimmage. Oliveira, who has four total touchdowns, will be leaned on heavily again in this one, up against an Alouettes defence that ranks second-last in run D, averaging 119 rushing yards against per game.

It’s not as strong a performance compared to last season, when Oliveira eclipsed 2,000 yards from scrimmage, but it might be just as impressive given how his season has gone this year.

Oliveira missed all of training camp with an injury, only to return Week 1 and get injured again by halftime, forcing him to miss all of Week 2. Despite the slow start, Oliveira managed to catch fire about a month into the season and hasn’t looked back.

CALL IN A COINCIDENCE…

Building off an earlier storyline, the last time the Bombers were playing for first place in the final regular season game was in 2011.

The Bombers were in the East then and, weirdly enough, they and Alouettes both lost their final game of the season, resulting in Winnipeg claiming first. If that wasn’t odd enough, the Grey Cup was played at BC Place — the same location as this year’s championship — with the Bombers ultimately falling to the Lions, 34-23.

The Bombers are on a 10-game win streak in games played after a bye week. It’s a run that dates back to the 2021 season, with the most recent loss coming against the Alouettes on Sept. 19, 2019.

Ok, that’s enough voodoo for one day.

Jeff.Hamilton@freepress.mb.ca

X: @jeffkhamilton