Federal election shapes up to be doozy as Tory lead shrinks in Manitoba

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 27/02/2025 (220 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It appears the next federal election is going to be a real horse race. Even in Manitoba.

New poll numbers from Probe Research show the Conservatives still leading in Manitoba, but with a much smaller lead and running in a dead-heat in Winnipeg.

The poll — provided exclusively to the Free Press — shows the Tories at 45 per cent support across the province, down from 52 per cent in December. The Liberals, meanwhile, have gained nearly 10 points, going from 19 per cent to 28 per cent.

The 17-point spread is still significant, but the trend line for the Conservatives is a cause for concern.

In Winnipeg, the Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie.

The poll has the Liberals at 35 per cent support, up 11 points from December. The Conservatives have 34 per cent, down from 43 per cent in the previous poll.

Needless to say, this marks a huge shift in support in Manitoba.

For the last two years, the federal Conservatives have dominated opinion polls in this province, often outpacing the Liberals and NDP by more than 30 points provincewide and nearly 20 points in Winnipeg.

However, as has been the case nationally and in other regions, those numbers are changing dramatically and the Liberals are back in the game.

All of the normal notes of caution should accompany these numbers.

All polls are just a snapshot of public opinion, with this one having been taken during the first two weeks of February, a time when seismic political events were erupting on what seemed like an almost daily basis.

Even so, the shift in support charted by Probe in Manitoba is absolutely in lock-step with national trends, which have the Liberals enjoying an unexpected and possibly even historic surge in support largely at the expense of the Conservatives.

“The Conservatives are still ahead provincewide, but their lead has dropped substantially compared to where we were at in December, and the Liberal number has shot up,” Curtis Brown, a principal at Probe Research said in an interview on the Niigaan and the Lone Ranger podcast.

Brown said NDP support in Manitoba has remained relatively stable, meaning that voters “who were kind of parked with the Conservatives now seem to be giving the Liberals a chance again.”

Local Conservatives may take some comfort in the fact that they are still enjoying a significant lead provincewide but there are two caveats that should accompany their optimism.

First, the provincial numbers are inflated somewhat by the enormous Tory pluralities in rural ridings. And second, the trend line is unmistakable: the Tories are headed downward with no clear idea of when its support will bottom out.

In multiple polls across different polling companies and periods, the Conservatives are hemorrhaging support and the previously moribund Liberals are suddenly showing signs of life.

The trend started manifesting six weeks ago, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally announced he was stepping down as Liberal leader.

That turned out to be a catalyst for the Liberal resurgence that appears to have been aided and abetted by the existential threats launched by U.S. President Donald Trump shortly after he was inaugurated.

Without Trudeau in play, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has appeared lost, a party leader without an impactful party message.

The Tories have tried to “pivot” but the reality is that he is still hammering away at the Liberals with a particularly shrill narrative that may play well with the deeply conservative core of the party, but seems oddly out of touch with recent events.

Put another way, Poilievre is still trying to land haymakers on the Liberals and Mark Carney, the presumptive front-runner in the Liberal leadership race.

The Liberals, meanwhile, are talking mostly about how to protect Canada’s economy and sovereignty from the voracious appetites of the Trump administration.

The Liberals are treating the Tories like afterthoughts in the current political debate. And it appears that increasing numbers of potential voters are beginning to feel the same way.

The Liberals are treating the Tories like afterthoughts in the current political debate. And it appears that increasing numbers of potential voters are beginning to feel the same way.

This week, just about every new poll coming out shows the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical dead heat: Ipsos on Thursday had the Liberals one point up on the Tories. Results like that are starting to slowly change the numbers in poll aggregators, which attempt to average out poll results over a 30-day period.

The aggregators, which are largely used to do seat projections, still show the Conservatives with roughly a 10-point lead nationally. However, that result is still influenced by month-old data that had the Tories way out ahead.

For voters and observers who love a good, tight electoral race, this election should be for you.

If the current trend continues, and as more new polls replace the older ones, the aggregators will begin to reflect a much tighter race.

Six weeks ago, the Tories were looking at winning a historically large majority mandate in the next election. As is stands now, most seat projections give the Conservative Party a 50-50 chance of winning a majority.

Even if the slide in Conservative support were to end now, Poilievre’s dream of a majority may have already been lost.

For voters and observers who love a good, tight electoral race, this election should be for you.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca