Poll numbers suggest hitching Tory wagon to Canada’s public enemy No. 1 a perilous choice for Poilievre

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 25/02/2025 (218 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The bad news just keeps coming for the Conservative Party of Canada and its now-nervous leader, Pierre Poilievre.

Once considered a shoo-in to win the next federal election by a wide margin, Poilievre — whose similarities to U.S. President Donald Trump have suddenly become an albatross around his neck — is now scrambling to differentiate himself from the fascist, narcissistic leader south of the border.

Polling over the past week continued to show a slide in Conservative support, particularly in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec — jurisdictions Poilievre must do well in to form a majority government.

On Sunday, Poll tracker 338Canada.com — which compiles and averages publicly available opinion polls — placed Conservative support at 41 per cent, 10 percentage points ahead of the Liberals. That’s still a solid margin. But it’s less than half the lead the party held before Trump was sworn into office last month and immediately began threatening Canada’s economy and sovereignty.

Eric Grenier’s poll tracker from TheWrit.ca, published weekly by CBC News, is showing a slightly wider margin for the Conservatives at 41.8 per cent support versus 27.4 for the Liberals. Still, it’s nowhere near the 23-percentage point lead Poilievre enjoyed at the beginning of the year. It was also the seventh consecutive week the Conservatives lost ground to the Liberals, Grenier reported.

Canadians are angry and want political leaders who will stand up to the U.S. government, protect Canada and reject all forms of Trumpism.

A 10- or 14-point margin is still enough for the Tories to win a majority government if Canadians were to cast ballots today. But if the margin continues to shrink, the outcome of the next federal election will no longer be a foregone conclusion. The dynamics of an election campaign, which could begin as early as next month, would become far more relevant than it was just a few weeks ago.

The main culprit? Donald Trump and his near-daily attacks on Canada, including his quest to make this country a 51st U.S. state and his repeated threats of imposing punishing tariffs on Canadian imports.

The unprecedented onslaught from an American president has prompted a wave of national pride and deep anti-U.S. sentiment across Canada. It has spilled into all facets of life, from booing the American anthem at hockey games to boycotting U.S. products at the cash register and cancelling trips south of the border.

That’s bad news for Poilievre, whose attack-dog style and ideology was fashioned after Trump’s. Until recently, that appeared to serve the Conservative leader well, or at least caused him little harm as Liberal fortunes plummeted.

The unprecedented onslaught from an American president has prompted a wave of national pride and deep anti-U.S. sentiment across Canada.

No more. Even the slightest scent of Trumpism does not bode well for any Canadian politician right now, at least outside of Alberta. It’s precisely why Ontario Premier Doug Ford, once a Trump supporter, was politically astute enough to get out ahead of the U.S. backlash by immediately and unequivocally denouncing Trump and his attack on Canada.

Poilievre has, so far, failed to do so. He has made some changes to his political messaging, including adopting a new “Canada First” slogan (although even that is dangerously close to Trump’s “America First”). Unfortunately for him, though, the Trump-like brand he has so meticulously crafted is now turning out to be a massive political liability.

And it won’t be easy to reverse course, especially for a politician such as Poilievre, who is ideologically comfortable wrapping himself in Trumpian politics.

Poilievre has spent the past two years mimicking the Republican leader, including attacking public institutions, such as the Bank of Canada and the mainstream media, calling the latter “fake news,” a term made popular by Trump.

Poilievre will have to reinvent himself if he wants to stop the bleeding of support to the Liberals.

His reference to the “radical left” in politics is identical to Trump’s. He uses the words “wacko” and “woke” regularly, as Trump does. And he coins nicknames to belittle his political opponents, such as “Sellout Singh,” in reference to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s support of the Liberal minority government, or “Carbon-tax Carney,” to describe Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney. It’s all straight out of Trump’s playbook.

Just recently, Poilievre copied Trump by vowing to cut foreign aid. Even his angry demeanour is similar to Trump’s. The similarities are striking.

Poilievre has also consistently claimed that “Canada is broken,” not a favourable position for any politician to take at the moment, amid the fierce Canadian patriotism sweeping through the country.

Related Articles

Tariff turmoil

Canadian consumer confidence hits lowest level since 2023 on U.S. tariff fears

Doug Ford points to renewed U.S. tariff threat in snap election campaign's final days

Trump says Canada and Mexico tariffs are 'going forward' with more import taxes to come

Poilievre's proposed incentives for First Nations water, resource projects draw fire

Poilievre sticks with 'axe the tax,' adds policy details to slogans as election nears

Poilievre pledges to restore 'promise of Canada' in campaign-style speech

Without Trudeau to target, the Tories lose their way

Conservative caucus meets in Ottawa as poll numbers slump and Trump's threats loom

Conservative strategists say Trump comparisons no reason for Poilievre to change gear

Former prime ministers call on Canadians to 'show the flag' as Trump pushes trade war

Taking Trump for the threat he is

Groups call on Ottawa to activate foreign influence registry as election approaches

Federal election shapes up to be doozy as Tory lead shrinks in Manitoba

All of these Trumpian tactics and slogans have, almost overnight, become a big problem for the Conservative leader.

Poilievre has also lost his main wedge issue with the Liberals: the carbon tax. Carney, the perceived leader in the Liberal leadership race, has vowed to eliminate the tax if he wins, which means Poilievre’s “axe the tax” campaign is no longer of any use.

With Trump’s attacks on Canada now the dominant issue across the country, and with the loss of the carbon tax as a wedge issue, Poilievre will have to reinvent himself if he wants to stop the bleeding of support to the Liberals. He will have to convince Canadians he is not “Trump-lite.”

That will be difficult to do after spending so much time and effort developing that brand.

Canadians are angry and want political leaders who will stand up to the U.S. government, protect Canada and reject all forms of Trumpism.

So far, Poilievre has failed to do so. And it’s showing in the polls.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.