Winnipeg less threatened than other cities by U.S. tariffs, but business community anxious, economist reports

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This article was published 07/03/2025 (187 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

While less than 10 per cent of Winnipeg industries may be exposed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, economic uncertainty is higher than it’s ever been and is taking a toll, city council’s finance committee heard Friday.

Six per cent of the Winnipeg economic region’s GDP across all industries is at risk of being exposed to Trump’s 25 per cent tariff on goods imported from Canada, and less than one per cent could be hit by the 10 per cent energy tariff, according to a presentation led by City of Winnipeg senior economist Paul Beckta.

The economic region includes both Winnipeg and Headingley.

Out of the 41 major cities in Canada, Winnipeg is ranked the 38th lowest in export tariff exposure, lower than other cities, including Regina and Saskatoon.

Calgary is one of the cities expected to be most impacted, due to its oil and energy industries.

“Winnipeg, on a perspective relative to exports, is much less exposed,” Beckta said after Friday’s standing policy committee on finance and development.

“On a relative basis, we’re better positioned.”

Beckta cautioned the numbers should be taken as an explanation of risk, keeping in mind that the American tariff targets have shifted day to day.

Eighty-three per cent of Winnipeg’s GDP is service-based, including retail, wholesale trade and transportation, most of which would not be impacted by tariffs.

About five per cent of jobs in Winnipeg’s economic region could be impacted by tariffs, largely within the manufacturing industry.

However, percentages don’t tell the full story. Interim city CAO Matt Dryburgh said Trump’s flip-flopping has been rocket fuel for an overall sense of uncertainty in the business community.

According to data presented to the finance committee and sourced from the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index — an academic study that uses major newspapers to determine the level of uncertainty being felt by people in different countries — Trump’s threats have spiked uncertainty to an all-time high across the country, even higher than what was recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic.

That uncertainty could turn into pullbacks in employment or hesitation to invest in Manitoba or across Canada.

“People don’t know what’s happening, quite literally, from one day to the next, and that’s having a measurable impact on businesses, and businesses’ decisions to invest, in businesses’ decisions to expand,” Dryburgh said.

“It’s really the fear of the unknown weighing heavily on on many businesses.”

“People don’t know what’s happening, quite literally, from one day to the next, and that’s having a measurable impact on businesses.”–Matt Dryburgh

The numbers don’t include the effects outside of the Winnipeg economic region; tariffs on steel are set to begin next week, which could heavily impact Selkirk.

“The macro numbers are comforting, to an extent, but we have to keep in mind that it’s going to be hard, on potentially, on a lot of companies and a lot of people,” Dryburgh said.

Finance committee chair Coun. Jeff Browaty noted some capital projects could be at risk because of the tariffs. The $135-million water meter renewal project, which was approved in 2024’s capital budget and would replace over 200,000 meters, is an example.

“We heard today about our water meters, most of the providers are American… a 25 per cent import tariff would certainly have a dramatic impact on the cost of proceeding with that project,” said Browaty (North Kildonan).

The City of Winnipeg has approximately $8.5 million in annual contracts with U.S.-based companies, about half of which provide software and are not impacted by tariffs.

The water and waste department has about $6 million in annual costs with U.S. suppliers, and another $32 million in purchases, including chemicals for treating water and specialized equipment, made either directly or indirectly from U.S. suppliers. About $3.4 million of those purchases could be impacted.

The finance committee voted Friday to receive monthly update presentations on tariff impacts for the next three months.

malak.abas@freepress.mb.ca

City tariff report

Malak Abas
Reporter

Malak Abas is a city reporter at the Free Press. Born and raised in Winnipeg’s North End, she led the campus paper at the University of Manitoba before joining the Free Press in 2020. Read more about Malak.

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