Kinew’s support in Winnipeg continues to grow, poll reveals

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This article was published 24/03/2025 (199 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A new poll shows Premier Wab Kinew and the NDP are not only still on an extended honeymoon with the Winnipeggers who lifted them to power — the love continues to grow.

The Free Press-Probe Research poll has found that almost a year-and-a-half after the October 2023 election that swept the NDP to a majority government, the party now has the support of 64 per cent of voters — a jump of 12 percentage points from when they took all but four Winnipeg ridings.

The party later added Tuxedo in a byelection after former Premier Heather Stefanson stepped down.

It’s also a massive 39 points higher than the Progressive Conservative party, which stands at just 25 percentage points in the city, down from the 32 per cent it received in the election.

But the poll also has mixed news for the Manitoba Liberal party. Under interim leader — and lone Liberal MLA — Cindy Lamoureux, the party is at 10 per cent in the city, three points higher than it was in December, but still five percentage points behind where it was on election day.

Outside Winnipeg, Manitobans are also showing more love for the NDP; support has grown from 36 per cent on election day to 45 per cent now.

While support outside Winnipeg and across the province puts the Tories slightly ahead at 47 per cent, up three percentage points from December, it’s within the statistical margin of error and still lower than the 56 per cent the party was at during the last election.

And there’s more bad news for the Tories, who will elect a new leader to replace Stefanson next month: almost one in five Manitobans who cast their vote for the Progressive Conservative party in the last election now prefer Kinew and the NDP.

The Liberal party is currently at four per cent outside Winnipeg, down one percentage point from the election.

Probe Research partner Mary Agnes Welch said the poll shows that in Winnipeg the NDP “are riding along with this incredible level of honeymoon which shows no sign of abating.”

“Some of it is people wanting to get behind our politicians now, because of the fear of (U.S. President Donald) Trump… but right now, the public feeling for Wab Kinew and the NDP remains overwhelmingly positive.”

Welch said the PCs’ numbers, especially in Winnipeg, are a combination of the support for Kinew, the lack of a permanent leader to put forward an alternative and “residual negative feelings.”

“The incredible drop of support for the federal NDP has not affected the provincial NDP. They are acting as two solitudes here.”

University of Manitoba political studies professor Christopher Adams said that unlike the PCs provincially and the Conservatives federally — which tend to hang on to their voters in campaigns at either level — the same is frequently not the case for the other parties.

“The Liberals pick up NDP votes in federal elections while the NDP pick up Liberal votes in provincial elections,” he said.

And Adams said the length of time between Stefanson’s resignation and next month’s leadership vote has hurt the Tories, to some extent.

“The average Manitoban, they hear the name (interim Tory leader) Wayne Ewasko, and they may say ‘who’s that?’ They don’t have a real leader yet in the party, so that might affect them.

“The party is not operating at full steam.”

Adams said Kinew’s rising support is much like what Gary Doer enjoyed after he was elected premier in 1999.

“(Doer’s) numbers kept going higher and higher — almost his entire reign was a honeymoon,” he said. “But he was fortunate to have a buoyant economy and high transfer payments (from the federal government).”

Doer’s successor, former premier Greg Selinger faced difficult economic times after the global economic collapse in 2008 and severe Manitoba flooding in 2009.

“But are we in good economic times now? I don’t think so, so in some ways Kinew’s numbers are even more impressive than Doer’s,” Adams said. “And Kinew has been fortunate to face an opposition which is treading water.”

The random and representative poll of 1,000 adults was taken between March 4 and March 16. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 95 per cent of the time.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca