Manitoba Grits gain, Tories and NDP in pain

The federal Liberals gained ground in Manitoba as they formed government for a fourth straight time in an election that saw NDP support collapse across the province and country.

Doug Eyolfson defeated Conservative incumbent Marty Morantz to flip Winnipeg West for the Liberals, as NDP incumbent Leila Dance (Elmwood-Transcona) lost her seat, a traditional New Democrat stronghold, to Tory candidate Colin Reynolds seven months after she edged him in a byelection.

“In 2019 when I lost, I vowed that I was going to be back one day, and I never really gave that up,” Eyolfson, an emergency-room doctor, told the Free Press at his campaign party event at the Portage Avenue Holiday Inn. “I always kept working at this while doing my day job, and I had a feeling that one day it was going to happen again. It was worth every moment.”

He was ahead by 12.5 percentage points with six polls left to report. Morantz congratulated Eyolfson and said he’s excited to see what the new iteration of the Conservatives could achieve, but he is done with politics.

Eyolfson will become an MP for the second time, after representing the riding (then known as Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley) from 2015 to 2019 before losing twice to Morantz.

Reynolds, who was about eight percentage points ahead of Dance with all but seven local polling stations reporting results, did not make himself available for an interview before press time.

In a potential upset, Liberal candidate Rebecca Chartrand led NDP incumbent Niki Ashton in Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, another New Democrat stronghold, by 16 percentage points in a rematch from the 2015 election. The candidates were still waiting for results from 66 polling stations.

If the Liberals manage to flip that riding, Winnipeg Centre incumbent Leah Gazan, the urban area’s MP since 2019, will be Manitoba’s lone NDP representative in the House of Commons.

Leader Jagmeet Singh announced his resignation after a disastrous showing put the NDP in fourth place and on course to lose official party status.

Gazan was ahead of Liberal challenger Rahul Walia by about five percentage points with all but two polling stations reporting.

“This was a hard night for us as the NDP, but here’s the thing: We were in the fight of our life in Winnipeg Centre and you know why we won? We won because we believe in human rights at the centre in Winnipeg Centre,” Gazan said.

“We believe that we need people holding the Liberal government to account to fight against corporate greed.”

National projections gave the Liberals a fourth-consecutive mandate, although it was still unclear if it would be a minority or majority government.

As of press time, the Conservatives were declared victorious or leading in seven of Manitoba’s 14 ridings (five rural strongholds and two that include parts of Winnipeg).

The Liberals won or were ahead in six electoral districts (five in Winnipeg). The NDP held one riding — Gazan’s — after shedding votes to the Grits and Tories in key battlegrounds.

Prior to the campaign, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives had seven seats, the Liberals had four and the NDP three.

In Kildonan-St. Paul, Tory incumbent Raquel Dancho was ahead of Liberal candidate Thomas Naaykens by four percentage points, with 35 polls still to report. Both candidates’ headquarters were tense as supporters anxiously awaited an official call at about 11:30 p.m.

“Conservatives, we work our butts off to win elections across the country and we’re going to keep doing that,” Dancho said at her campaign headquarters. “If the results hold tight for Kildonan-St. Paul, you’re sending a fighter back to Ottawa.”

She said the national result was not what Tory supporters wanted.

“Don’t give up hope. It’s not over yet,” she said, predicting a minority Liberal government.

Some victorious Liberal candidates expressed relief at the national outcome, after opinion polls suggested the party was headed for a heavy defeat until a recent resurgence thanks, in part, to a change in leadership and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff and annexation threats.

“There’s a great deal of relief and a lot of happy Liberals,” said incumbent Kevin Lamoureux, who was easily re-elected in Winnipeg North. “Look at where we were three, four months ago. Who would’ve thought we’d be in government?”

“Just a few months ago, we were not in the best of places, and (Liberal Leader) Mark Carney has done an incredible job of speaking to Canadians,” said incumbent Terry Duguid, who kept his seat in Winnipeg South, a bellwether that has elected an MP from the party that formed government in every election since 1988.

“I’m very grateful for Mark Carney’s leadership. I’m very grateful for how we turned things around and made this a competitive race. And I’m very optimistic about the future and our ability to deal with Donald Trump and stand up for the interests of Canadians.”

Carney appointed Duguid as Canada’s environment and climate change minister eight days before the campaign

Political newcomer Ginette Lavack retained St. Boniface-St. Vital for the Liberals, who’ve held the riding since 2015. She will replace Dan Vandal, who did not seek re-election.

“We did it, we really did it,” Lavack said at her election-night party at Fort Gibraltar, where she was flanked by supporters, including Vandal.

Lavack said she will be an MP for all people in the riding.

“I know there’s real concerns about cost of living, housing, health care, the future of our planet, all of that. I hear you, I see you,” she told a crowd of about 75 people. “I will collaborate with all levels of government to ensure that our community gets the support and services it deserves.”

Liberal incumbent Ben Carr defended the Winnipeg South Centre seat he first won in a 2023 byelection, following the death of his father, Jim Carr, who was the riding’s MP since 2015.

“I’m very proud of the campaign we ran in Winnipeg South Centre,” Carr said. “It was positive. It was substantive. And it was fuelled by purpose.

“We had contact with tens of thousands of people in the riding and the conversations were very clear: people were worried and wanted strong leadership. And they saw that leadership was reflected in Mark Carney and the team around him. The results have reflected that.”

Conservative incumbents James Bezan (Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman), Ted Falk (Provencher), Branden Leslie (Portage-Lisgar) and Dan Mazier (Riding Mountain) easily were re-elected in Conservative strongholds in rural Manitoba.

Federal newcomer Grant Jackson won Brandon-Souris for the Tories. He resigned as an MLA to run federally, after Larry Maguire, the riding’s MP since 2013, announced he would not seek re-election due to health concerns.

“It’s been an interesting and challenging campaign. In all my campaigns we haven’t seen the yardsticks and the goal sticks move as often as they have,” Bezan said. “It seemed like we were pivoting through the whole campaign. The conversations on the doorstep changed a lot from where we started to where we ended.”

The longstanding Tory felt a longer campaign would have worked in favour of his party, giving voters more opportunities to scrutinize Carney.

Bezan maintained support for Poilievre.

“He’s an individual who has us within a few seats of having government,” Bezan said.

University of Winnipeg political science Prof. Malcolm Bird said the NDP’s collapse in Manitoba sent voters in different directions.

Observers thought the Liberals would benefit most, which was the case in Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, he said.

“That’s certainly not what happened in Elmwood-Transcona, where the Tories were able to decisively beat the NDP candidate there,” Bird said.

He said the Conservatives were able to effectively target “working people” in that riding by campaigning on issues such as the cost of living, housing and taxation.

The Liberals have been in power since 2015, mostly with minority governments propped up by the NDP. The Tories will again serve as the official Opposition.

For months, opinion polls suggested the next election would be a Conservative landslide. While Poilievre enjoyed a double-digit lead, former prime minister Justin Trudeau faced a caucus revolt and announced his resignation Jan. 6.

That, along with Trump’s tariff and annexation threats, stoked a Liberal resurgence that wiped out Poilievre’s lead.

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The momentum continued under Carney, who won a leadership contest March 9 to become prime minister, and then called a snap election March 23.

Polls suggested Carney continued to hold a slight edge over Poilievre in the campaign’s final days, while the NDP risked dropping enough seats to lose official party status.

The vote had to be held on or before Oct. 20. Federal law requires an election to be held on the third Monday of October every four years.

— With files from Malak Abas, Scott Billeck, Nicole Buffie, Aaron Epp, Maggie Macintosh, Katie May, Marsha McLeod, Gabrielle Piche and Tyler Searle

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca

Chris Kitching
Reporter

Chris Kitching is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He began his newspaper career in 2001, with stops in Winnipeg, Toronto and London, England, along the way. After returning to Winnipeg, he joined the Free Press in 2021, and now covers a little bit of everything for the newspaper. Read more about Chris.

Every piece of reporting Chris produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.