Support for NDP continues to soar

Premier Wab Kinew’s NDP government continues to bask in overwhelming support across Manitoba — even as there may be a glimmer of hope for Obby Khan’s Progressive Conservatives.

A Free Press-Probe Research poll of Manitobans shows the NDP and Kinew — the most popular premier in the country according to national polls — have the support of 60 per cent of Winnipeggers, up a hair from 59 per cent in December.

Support for the Tories has gone up by four points to 29 per cent, its highest number since September 2024.

While the NDP and PCs are trending up, that comes at the expense of the Manitoba Liberal Party, which went from 11 per cent support in December to eight per cent.

The NDP, set to release its third budget next week, are polling higher now than they were when they won a majority government in October 2023. The NDP received 52 per cent of that vote, the Tories got 32 per cent and the Liberals had 15 per cent.

Across the province, the NDP holds a 20-point lead over the Tories, with 55 per cent of Manitobans supporting the NDP compared to 35 per cent support for the Tories. On election day in 2023, the NDP were ahead of the PCs in Manitoba by only three points — 45 per cent to 42 per cent.

The Manitoba Liberals have sunk to a distant six per cent provincially, down three points from December.

When you take Winnipeg out of the equation, the NDP hold a slight lead of 47 per cent to 43 per cent over the Tories in the rest of the province. In December’s poll, the two parties were tied at 43 per cent.

Probe’s Mary Agnes Welch said the NDP’s continued strength could translate into even greater electoral success in 2027, or if Kinew pulls the plug earlier.

“You think about the longevity of an NDP government, you also think about the strength of their seat count, and I think this data — and it has been going on for years now — seems to tell us if there was an election held tomorrow the NDP would win more seats than they have now,” Welch said Thursday.

“Even in rural Manitoba, outside of Winnipeg, the NDP has been leading for nearly a year now, and you start to think of seats — the Brandon seats, Selkirk, other rural Manitoba seats where the Tories are losing MLAs and the NDP are investing a fair bit of time and a fair bit of spin — it’s not inconceivable… that you would be looking at some kind of a bigger, healthier majority for the NDP.”

The poll showed the NDP have the support of 63 per cent of women, 67 per cent of university graduates, 54 per cent of college and some post-secondary students, and 50 per cent with high school or less.

Among men, the NDP have 46 per cent support compared to the Tories’ 42 per cent.

Welch said while support for the PCs is up, there’s plenty of work to be done.

“I think the first hint of recovery for the Conservatives is maybe stealing a few votes from the Liberals,” she said. “Really, it is the Liberals and the Tories fighting over those non-NDP votes.

“But I don’t want to lose the forest for the trees — the forest tells us that Manitobans are overwhelmingly happy with the NDP government.”

University of Manitoba political studies professor Christopher Adams agreed the high number of women supporting the NDP has helped fuel its success.

“It is not unusual for the NDP to have an advantage of female voters, but these numbers are really something,” Adams said.

“And the NDP support doesn’t seem to be affected by level of education. They are high in all categories. It is the PCs who, the lower the education level is, get more support.”

Adams said the high level of support the NDP have outside Winnipeg was also surprising.

“The fact the NDP continues to be doing moderately well there is something which was unusual before Wab Kinew.”

Probe randomly polled 1,000 Manitoba adults, using both landline and cellphone numbers, live agent operators, text messages, interactive voice response, and its own online panel, between March 1 and 17.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 95 times out of 100.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca