Number of new measles cases trending down

Manitoba’s number of new confirmed measles cases is trending downward, but it’s still difficult to predict when the outbreak could end, a top public health official told the Free Press Friday.

The province reported 18 more confirmed infections between May 10 and 16, bringing the year-to-date total to 586 — most in the country — although the true number is believed to be higher.

Manitoba has also recorded 75 probable cases of the highly contagious disease since Jan. 1.

“Things seem to be a bit on the downward slope for new cases,” said Dr. Davinder Singh, who is leading Manitoba’s response to the outbreak. “You can see that for May, things seem to be significantly down compared to previous months.

“Despite the lower numbers, I think I would still expect to see new cases of measles for the foreseeable weeks and the months ahead.”

Manitoba Health said 37 confirmed and three probable cases were reported in the first half of May. April’s totals were 130 confirmed and seven probable infections.

The province had 161 confirmed and 23 probable cases in March, and 177 confirmed and 34 probable infections in February — the highest monthly totals since Manitoba’s outbreak began in February 2025.

The number of cases detected in 2026 has surpassed last year’s totals of 319 confirmed and 29 probable infections.

Manitoba Health said 82.2 per cent of all confirmed infections involved people who were unvaccinated. The remainder had one or two doses of a vaccine, or their immunization status was unknown.

Most cases involve unvaccinated or under-vaccinated children.

Of the 48 patients who’ve been hospitalized, nearly half were under the age of 10, and almost all were not immunized. No deaths have been reported.

The majority of Manitoba’s cases have been detected in Winkler, Morden and the rural municipalities of Dufferin, Rhineland, Roland, Stanley and Thompson in the Southern Health region.

The region’s measles vaccination rates are the lowest in Manitoba.

Singh said additional spikes in cases are possible if measles is introduced to pockets of unvaccinated people who have not yet been exposed.

It’s hard to predict how summer travel or activities could affect the situation, he said.

Most summer activities take place outside, which lowers the risk compared with winter, when people spend more time indoors, Singh said.

“The best way to protect yourself is to get immunized. It is quite a rare thing to get a breakthrough infection, or an infection with measles, when you are immunized,” he said. “When that does happen, generally they are much milder and much less likely to spread the disease.”

Two vaccine doses provide 97 per cent protection, Singh said.

Manitoba has reported the highest number of confirmed and probable measles cases among Canadian provinces in 2026, according to federal data.

Health Canada’s latest surveillance report, which contained statistics up to May 9, said Manitoba had 630 confirmed and probable infections. Alberta was second with 302. B.C. was third with 30.

Six provinces or territories — New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Prince Edward Island and Yukon — have reported no cases this year.

The measles virus spreads through close contact with an infected person and through the air when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Symptoms include a characteristic red, blotchy rash. There is no cure for measles.

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca