Focus on farming to rise above trade wars, election pressure

Between trade wars, the federal election and plethora of decisions farming requires, Canadian farmers have lots to keep their minds occupied during those long hours on the seeding equipment about to start rolling across the Prairie landscape.

By most accounts, the field conditions are positioned for a roaring start to the growing season. It’s a little dry, but the soil moisture is adequate. It’s been a bit cool, but the forecast is for temperatures to sneak above normal for the next several weeks.

With weather, soil moisture and temperature aligning as they have, some producers might even head for the fields from the polling stations Monday.

However, if the opinion trackers are any indication, the voting outcome isn’t going to be what most farmers wanted, and many anticipated, a few short months ago.

Farm organizations and their members were counting on a change in government. The policies under Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau were seen as too focused on climate change and environmental protection and not focused enough on supporting productivity improvements.

That said, their two biggest beefs — the carbon tax and proposed changes to how much capital gains tax farmers would have to pay when they transfer assets from one generation to the next — were pulled before the election writ was dropped.

Agriculture has surfaced in party platforms and in debates, although not to the degree or in the way many farmers would have liked.

There’s a perverse psychology in play when it comes to how politicians deal with interest groups when voting patterns are well-established and unlikely to change.

The Liberals have been in government for nearly a decade and can play off policies already in place knowing that even if they went door to door handing out gold bricks, they wouldn’t get enough votes in most rural western ridings to win.

That said, the platform they released touches on a lot of the issues farmers have raised, such as extending the rules around railway interswitching — one way of introducing more competition into the grain handling and transportation system dominated by two railway companies.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives know they have the farm vote locked up, no matter what they do. And if they’re going to win the right to govern, they need to focus on the voting groups in urban and eastern ridings that can make that happen.

Many of the Conservative policies — such as cutting bureaucracy, taxes and regulation or eliminating the industrial carbon tax — undoubtedly have implications for farmers, along with everyone else. But the only place in the Conservative platform that speaks directly to agriculture is a promise to introduce national farmland protection legislation to restrict foreign buyers.

It’s an odd promise and one that sets the stage for a constitutional dispute with the provinces, which currently have jurisdiction over land ownership. Most already have protective legislation in place.

Support for supply management is consistent with either of the parties most likely to form the government, a commitment that will be tested if and when a renegotiation of the North American free trade deal gets underway.

Canadian agriculture has so far been largely spared the effects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff wars (although we all know that could change before you finish reading this column).

China’s decision to place tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal, pork, peas and seafood as retribution for Canada’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is having an impact, but not as large as first feared.

Market prices for canola have largely recovered from the drop when those tariffs were announced a month ago, posting a rather remarkable $100 per tonne gain, or about 15 per cent.

Change is in the wind as farmers head for their fields, whether the election goes their way or not. The trade and market conditions are mixed between positives and negatives. But just like the weather, the potential swings are less predictable and more extreme.

All in all, it might be a relief to just focus on farming for a while.

Laura Rance is executive editor, production content lead for Glacier FarmMedia. She can be reached at lrance@farmmedia.com

Laura Rance
Columnist

Laura Rance is editorial director at Farm Business Communications.

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