Manitobans continue to draw line in sand, choose not to cross once-neighbourly line on land

Julie Regner loves to see Canadians tackle the slopes or après-ski at North Dakota’s Frost Fire Park, which has drawn skiers and snowboarders across the border for decades.

While there hasn’t been an official tally of visitors this season, the park’s general manager doesn’t think she’s seeing as many Manitobans amid the steep decline in Canadians venturing south.

“I would say it’s maybe decreased some from last year. They’re definitely still coming down to ski,” Regner said from the park, which is close to Walhalla, just 10 kilometres south of the border.

“We just love having them come down. They’re super nice people.”

Regner estimated about 40 per cent of the park’s customers are from Canada. Some Canadians have told her they’ve decided not to visit in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s punishing tariffs, which he imposed last year on a wide range of goods not protected under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement, including autos, steel and aluminum.

Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on many U.S. allies, claiming unfair trade practices.

In a 6-3 decision released Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Trump overstepped his authority when he invoked emergency presidential power to put the levies in place. In an angry response, he doubled down, announcing the tariffs will remain and he will be adding an additional 10 per cent global tariff.

Statistics Canada’s latest data on cross-border travel delivered more bad news for U.S. destinations that get a chunk of their business from Canadians and are hoping to see a rebound.

The number of Canadians who made return plane and vehicle trips declined for the 12th consecutive month in January (down 24.3 per cent compared with the same month in 2025). Recent opinion surveys suggested the slide will continue this year.

By comparison, U.S.-resident return trips to Canada were down by 0.5 per cent year over year, StatCan said.

Canadian airlines cut or suspended some cross-border routes. WestJet said it is suspending direct flights between Winnipeg and Atlanta and Nashville. The airline is seasonally suspending flights between Winnipeg and Orlando.

The downward trend for U.S.-bound travel was largely driven by a dwindling number of road trips. Most road-trippers from Manitoba enter via North Dakota.

Sara Otte Coleman, director of tourism and marketing with North Dakota’s commerce department, said Canadian visitation to the state dropped by 25 per cent in 2025, based on the recorded number of personal vehicle border crossings.

She said visitor spending and hotel demand were down between 3.9 per cent and 6.7 per cent.

“Some communities have maintained stronger Canadian visitation numbers,” Otte Coleman said. “This shows that many on both sides of the border enjoy relationships and experiences in their neighbouring states and provinces.”

North Dakota’s tourism division is advertising in Manitoba and online to encourage Manitobans to visit the state in 2026.

In a January survey of 1,000 Canadians by research firm Longwoods International, 59 per cent of respondents said American policies, trade practices and political statements make them less likely to travel to the U.S. this year.

A separate survey by YouGov, for Flight Centre, polled 1,064 Canadians in November; 62 per cent said they are less likely to visit the U.S. in 2026 than last year. The number increased to 76 per cent for baby boomers.

Main factors were the political or cultural climate, border hassles or travel restrictions, safety or security concerns and exchange rates and overall costs.

Canada’s dollar, which has been weak for years, was worth 73 American cents Friday. Canadians are being squeezed by rising costs at home.

The Trump government, meanwhile, is tightening immigration rules and has announced the expansion of facial biometric technology, requiring photos of non-U.S. citizens, at border crossings.

The Canadian Snowbird Association reported a roughly 15 per cent decline in snowbird travel to the U.S. this season compared with last.

“While we do not currently have Manitoba-specific snowbird statistics, general cross-border traffic data and anecdotal reports indicate that Manitobans are following similar national trends,” said Evan Rachkovsky, the association’s director of research.

Some Manitoba school divisions, including those in Winnipeg, hit pause on student trips to the U.S. for the time being. Morris-based Red River Valley School Division last month decided to suspend all international travel.

“Given the geopolitical tensions kind of all over now, the board had a long discussion and found it to be an unnecessary risk to take at the moment,” Supt. Dan Preteau said.

Lorette-based Seine River School Division recently extended its suspension of U.S. trips. Student and staff safety was among the concerns, board chair Christine Roskos said, as well as a desire to support options in Canada.

“We, at this point, have not had anyone from our division, whether it’s staff or students, in opposition of this,” she said.

While U.S.-bound travel declined, tourism organizations in Manitoba reported an increase in Americans visiting this province in 2025 from 2024.

Travel Manitoba pointed to StatCan data showing a 13.5 per cent increase in direct entries from the U.S. at Winnipeg’s airport, and a five per cent rise in Americans who arrived via land border crossings.

The latter does not include U.S. citizens who, for example, travelled to Manitoba but entered Canada by land or air via a different province.

Louise Waldman, Travel Manitoba’s vice-president of communications and strategic engagement, said it’s tough to point to a single reason why U.S. visitation increased.

She said Manitoba is an affordable destination with “bucket list” trips — seeing polar bears in Churchill, for example — and lakes or rivers that draw a lot of fishers from the U.S.

The full effect of last year’s wildfire season, which forced some lodges and outfitters to close, is not yet known, Waldman said.

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The suspension of some direct flights between Winnipeg and the U.S. will affect 2026 figures, Waldman said.

“It’s positive were seeing this growth in U.S. visitation. That speaks to the incredible diversity of offerings that we have here, and the warm welcome,” she said.

Natalie Thiesen, vice-president of tourism for Winnipeg Economic Development and Tourism, said spending from U.S. visitors represented about 25 per cent of total visitor expenditures in 2025.

“That’s slightly up from 2024 numbers, but even from 2019, which was just over 33 per cent, (Winnipeg) is really recovering post-pandemic,” Thiesen said.

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca

Chris Kitching
Reporter

Chris Kitching is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He began his newspaper career in 2001, with stops in Winnipeg, Toronto and London, England, along the way. After returning to Winnipeg, he joined the Free Press in 2021, and now covers a little bit of everything for the newspaper. Read more about Chris.

Every piece of reporting Chris produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.