NDP voter volatility could create election surprises

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This article was published 01/05/2011 (5329 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

THE result of this election hinges on the last thoughts going through voters’ minds before casting their ballots on Monday, the results of a poll on voter stability suggest.

Poll results have been indicating support for the NDP is climbing consistently. But with 61 per cent of those polled saying they might change their mind before election day, the “orange wave” could either turn into a tidal wave or prove to be little more than a ripple.

“The NDP is unique,” said Conrad Winn, president of the polling company COMPAS. “It’ll be feast or famine for them on Monday.”

Most parties will be slightly affected if nearly two-thirds of voters change their minds at the last minute, Winn said.

But only the NDP can soar or plummet, the poll results suggest. Findings from the most recent horse race poll from COMPAS suggest the Tories winning a majority with 46 per cent of the total votes. That same poll pegged the NDP at 26 per cent, the Liberals at 17 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at seven per cent.

“But here’s the paradox: the NDP is especially unpredictable and can go both ways,” Winn said.

The party’s 26 per cent support could drop to 20 per cent or increase to 36 per cent, depending on the strength of the party’s machine and what voters are thinking during the final hours leading to making their decision.

Winn pointed to two factors revealed in the poll that he says contribute to this spread.

At 76 per cent, the NDP has the highest proportion of voters who say they could change their mind. Fifty-one per cent of Conservative supporters polled say they might change their minds, and 65 per cent of Liberals said so.

“So many NDP voters don’t know who their local candidate is. So either the NDP machine isn’t that strong, or NDP voters aren’t committed enough to know the names, three days before the election, the name of the candidate they’re going to be putting an ‘X’ beside,” Winn said.

For this poll, 750 people were interviewed on April 28 and 29. The margin of error is approximately 3.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

— Postmedia News