Too close to call

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This article was published 13/09/2024 (415 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

There is guaranteed to be a joyous celebration at some point next week down at Blue Cross Park.

The only question yet to be answered: Will it be the Winnipeg Goldeyes or Kane County Cougars popping champagne and raising the Miles Wolff Cup as champions of the American Association?

The best-of-five series gets underway this weekend in Illinois for Games 1 (Saturday, 6:30 p.m.) and 2 (Sunday, 1 p.m.) before shifting north for the duration. Winnipeg, by virtue of a 56-43 regular-season record, gets home-field advantage against Kane County (55-45), with Games 3 set for Tuesday night and Games 4 and 5, if necessary, going Wednesday and Thursday. All games can be viewed online for free at www.aabaseball.tv.

This is the first playoff meeting between the two franchises. Winnipeg is seeking a fifth title, but first since 2017. Kane County will be trying to add a third, but first since 2014.

To get you set, here’s five other Q+A’s:

How did they get here?

Winnipeg, the No. 1 seed in the West, has gone the distance in both best-of-three series so far. They dropped the opener on the road against the No. 2 seed Sioux Falls Canaries before rallying to win two in a row at the downtown diamond, then drew first blood in Fargo, dropped the second game at home and came out on top against the archrival Redhawks (No. 3 seed) in Thursday’s thrilling winner-take-all tilt.

Kane County, meanwhile, has yet to suffer a loss. The No. 2 seed in the East swept the No. 4 Lake Country Dockhounds and then quickly disposed of No. 3 Chicago (which had upset No. 1 Cleburne). They’ve barely had to break a sweat, outscoring their opponents 15-5 in those games.

How did they do against each other this season?

Advantage, Winnipeg. For whatever it’s worth. The Goldeyes went 4-2 against the Cougars this year, taking two out of three games at home in early June, then doing the same on the road one week later. A word of caution, however: Life can change pretty quickly in the world of independent baseball, with plenty of player turnover, so the results of games more than three months ago likely aren’t worth reading too much into.

Who has the pitching advantage?

Give the slight edge to Winnipeg, which led the American Association in many key metrics including earned-run-average. After a rough Game 1 outing in Sioux Falls, ace Joey Matulovich looked like his dominant self in Game 1 in Fargo. Expect him to be back on the bump to start this series, as it perfectly lines up with typical five days between starts. Winnipeg is far from a one-trick pony, as Mitch Lambson — who was brilliant in Thursday’s victory over the Redhawks — along with Canadian Landon Bourassa and hard-throwing Zac Reininger should all get starts. The bullpen is loaded, too.

Kane County had the second-best ERA in the league this year, and they’ve really stepped on the gas in the playoffs surrendering just five runs in their four games. Greg Mahle is their ace, with a 10-2 record and 2.94 ERA in the regular-season and a 2-0 record with a 1.58 ERA in two post-season starts. Spencer Stockton has a sizzling 0.77 ERA in his two playoff starts for the Cougars. Because of how quickly they’ve advanced, Kane County has yet to call upon Tommy Sommer (3.92 ERA in 19 starts) or Jack Fox (nine wins in 21 starts), but that will now change. They can lock it down late with some solid bullpen depth.

Add it all up and this figures to be a tight, low-scoring series.

Who has the most offensive pop?

Nearly too close to call. Kane County averaged 5.87 runs per game this year to sit second-best in the league while batting .278 as a team (third). Winnipeg was fifth in the league in runs 5.42, and fourth in batting average at .277.

For the Cougars, outfielders Cornelius Randolph (.342 average, tied for third in the league) and Trendon Craig (.321, good for seventh-best) along with infielders Claudio Finol (.309) and Josh Allen (.306) are all dangerous hitters, as is infielder Todd Lott, who led the team with 67 RBI while also batting .298. Throw in speedster Armond Upshaw (team-leading 32 stolen bases along with a .280 average) and that’s a stellar top six.

Winnipeg has a loaded lineup too, albeit one that can be extremely streaky at times. It took a bit of a hit on Wednesday against Fargo when Ramon Bramasco suffered a hamstring injury. He was unable to play on Thursday and his status for this series is a bit of a mystery. The versatile infielder would be a big loss, as he hit .286 during the regular-season and was 8-for-20 (.400) to begin the playoffs. Still, Winnipeg has two of the league’s top hitters by average in 2B Dayson Croes (third, .342) and OF Miles Simington (sixth, .329), along with big run producers in veteran OF Max Murphy (73 RBI, tied for eighth) and C Rob Emery (70 RBI, tied for 11th). Murphy is 2-for-21 so far in the playoffs, so perhaps he’s due for a breakout. Nobody is hotter right now than infielder Edwin Arroyo, who is batting .476 with eight RBI so far in the playoffs, which lead all players.

What other intangibles might be in play?

It will be interesting to see how much of an impact the home crowds might play. Kane County led the league in the regular-season with an average of 5,606 fans per game, but only drew a combined 2,364 for their two home playoff dates so far. Winnipeg was third in the league with 3,714 filled seats, and that’s remained consistent in the post-season with nearly 15,000 people watching the first four home games. The Goldeyes have launched a “pack the park” campaign and will hope to see an even bigger number next week.

Winnipeg was nearly identical at home (28-21) compared to on the road (28-22), while Kane County was slightly better in enemy territory (27-22) compared to home cooking (28-23).

The manager match-up is a fun one. Logan Watkins is just 35 and in his first-year at the helm with the Goldeyes, taking them from worst to first and winning the skipper-of-the-year award last week. George Tsamis, 57, is the grizzled veteran in the other dugout and has four championships on his resume, mostly recently in 2019 with the St. Paul Saints. This is his fourth year with Kane County.

Winnipeg was the third-best fielding team in the league this year, while Kane County was third-worst.

mike.mcintyre@freepress.mb.ca

X: @mikemcintyrewpg