Disasters can drown, buoy election hopes

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 25/01/2011 (5693 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

When it floods, they call it an act of God. But when your disaster assistance cheque is late, or evacuation efforts fall short, or ice dams jump the riverbank, that’s the premier’s fault.

Manitobans know all about floods and the politics of flood-fighting. We pay our taxes, so we expect to be protected from swollen rivers and overland flooding, even if that annual event raises questions about the sanity of the people who first settled in the Red River Valley. Act of God or not, we’ll hold our elected officials responsible come hell or high water. Pun intended.

So, it’s with some interest we see the stars aligning to create a high likelihood of severe spring flooding in this, a provincial election year. Flooding is a fact of life in the valley. But combine a flood with an election, and a competitive one at that, and it’s easy to see why Premier Greg Selinger and his army of flood-fighting wonks, technocrats and cabinet ministers are working overtime to get their ducks in a row. The province on Monday released one of its earliest and most detailed spring flood forecasts. At this stage, the news is not good. A combination of heavy rainfall last year and heavy snow this winter have conditions ripe for a 1997-like flood. The province is better-prepared thanks to a combined investment of more than $1 billion over the past decade.

But floods are unpredictable and that makes this impending flood a political minefield for Selinger. (Just Google “Ray Nagin,” the disgraced former mayor of New Orleans, for a lesson in the worst possible political outcome of a natural disaster. Nagin’s subsequent religious and racist diatribes certainly helped cement his fall from grace. But it was the simple decision to leave city buses idle as New Orlean’s neediest were trying to flee the city that started the destruction of his political career.)

Elections and natural disasters simply don’t mix well. Many federal Liberals still remember then-prime minister Jean Chrétien’s decision to call a federal election in the spring of 1997 with much of southern Manitoba under water. Chrétien dismissed suggestions he should delay the election out of respect for flood-ravaged Manitoba. And when he tried to show his support on the campaign trail, it backfired in magnificent fashion.

Chrétien attended a sandbagging line in north Winnipeg for a photo opportunity. When someone handed Chrétien a sandbag, he asked his handlers “What do you want me to do with this?” Then he tossed the bag on the line. The implication was that Chrétien wasn’t there to help the sandbaggers, only to use them as wallpaper for a photo opportunity. Chrétien still won a majority, but the Liberals went from 12 of 14 seats in Manitoba to just six.

But natural disasters can also be an opportunity; moments when leaders demonstrate they can, indeed, lead. And this premier needs to show Manitobans he is capable of leading.

It’s not that he hasn’t led; it’s more that Selinger hasn’t been in the premier’s office long enough to prove he has the same mettle as Gary Doer and Gary Filmon, both celebrated as effective leaders.

Not surprisingly, Selinger has put himself front and centre in this flood-fighting campaign. Government insiders claim Selinger makes more appearances at flood preparation meetings, stays longer and asks more questions. He certainly signalled Monday he’ll be the face of the province’s flood-fighting effort.

The flood forecast briefing began with a technical session chaired by Infrastructure Minister Steve Ashton and senior flood-fighting mandarins. In 2009, Ashton was the face of the province’s flood-fighting efforts and used the media exposure to launch an unsuccessful bid for the NDP leadership. This time around, it appears he will be second banana.

Following Ashton’s briefing, Selinger took the stage where he repeated briefly the highlights of the technical briefing and then announced $22 million in new flood-fighting measures. The timing of the two briefings gave Selinger an almost certain place at the top of most news stories Monday night and this morning.

Following the briefing, Selinger was asked what his role was in the flood-fighting effort, to which he said “co-ordinating” all the various departments involved. Odd, but that’s what Ashton told Manitobans he did in 2009.

Few citizens should fear the premier, who leads the provincial government, taking a more direct role in the flood efforts. He is, after all, the boss.

And with much of the south of the province prepared for a flood in excess of 1997 levels, the chances of a true disaster appear remote. But floods, like politics, are all about risk and reward and this spring could mark the beginning of a re-election campaign, or the end of it.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca