Why go to a leaders debate? It’s all déjà vu by now

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 23/09/2011 (5127 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Perhaps you’ve had this experience.

You get tickets to see your favourite band in concert. After suffering agonizing anticipation, there they are. Live and in the flesh.

But then something weird happens. Although you’re there in person watching them, it doesn’t sound a whole lot different than what you’ve been listening to on your iPod. In fact, it sounds exactly the same as the recorded version. And that’s a big disappointment.

Welcome to the 2011 provincial election, where live leaders offer little more than their YouTube characters.

This point was driven home Thursday at the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce leaders debate. Premier Greg Selinger, Progressive Conservative Leader Hugh McFadyen and Liberal Leader Jon Gerrard all put in thoughtful, competent performances while discussing key fiscal and business issues.

Opinions may vary among the 400 or so in attendance, but for many in the media this was a case of been there, done that. Thanks to the glut of pre-writ advertisements, YouTube clips and live forums, we’ve seen everything these guys have to offer. They are the political equivalents of the band that, when performing live, has nothing more to offer than the studio version.

Perhaps, as a member of the media who is obligated to take in most (if not all) of the debates, I’m a bit jaded. But no one in this election has been able to produce a wow moment.

At the heart of this problem is the fact the three parties do not disagree on all that much. Take away accounting strategies and routes for hydro transmission lines, and there is an alarming degree of consensus. At this point in the campaign, it seems the parties are asking Manitobans to choose their next premier based on whether they prefer a tax credit for home energy retrofits or a tax credit for gym memberships.

In so many ways, this has been a most frustrating election. There have been no published opinion polls tracking voter intentions. The Free Press will publish poll results late next week, but that looks like it will be the only broad survey released during the campaign. There have been lots of debates and forums for the leaders, but there will be no marquee televised debate this time around. The three main television networks — CBC, CTV and Global — deserve high praise for carving out some premium time for a televised debate Friday night. But with a running time of about 45 minutes, it still falls far short of what voters need.

Perhaps we’ve been spoiled, but in federal elections, there has been more media coverage and more opinion surveys, all of which help create a strong narrative. In federal elections in particular, we can watch daily the ebb and flow of voter intentions, thanks to a proliferation of rolling daily polls. We can match those rolling results with changes in campaign strategy to see who blinks and who is gaining momentum. We’ve had none of that in this election.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

Dan Lett | Not for Attribution

Tuesdays

A weekly look at politics close to home and around the world.

Sign up for Dan Lett | Not for Attribution

Sign Up

I agree to the Terms and Conditions, Cookie and Privacy Policies, and CASL agreement.

In the absence of polls and longer televised debates, intrepid journalists have been forced to survive on spin from the parties themselves. The New Democrats are resolute the Tories have not laid a glove on them and that they are holding firm in all the swing ridings. The Tories, on the other hand, indicate the appetite for change is definitely growing in Manitoba, a sure sign voters want a new government, if only to see a different face. And the Liberals, well, they admit their biggest hope is that they are not wiped off the electoral map on Oct. 4. We can conclude at this stage of the campaign that the Grits are the only ones telling us the whole truth.

It is always dangerous during an election campaign to assume nothing is happening in the electorate, even in the absence of evidence that something is happening. We learned that in the 1999 provincial election, when a similar lack of opinion polls convinced many wise prognosticators the Tcories were unbeatable, in large part because the NDP seemed woefully underwhelming in its campaign. Poll results released in the last week of the campaign, however, put the NDP and Tories in a dead heat. When the votes were counted Sept. 21, it was the NDP that triumphed, proof voters were reconfiguring, even if it could not be seen mid-campaign.

We don’t know much about what is lurking in the heart of voters right now and whether they have heard or seen something that will push them in a new direction. Or whether they’ve heard and seen everything and have still decided to maintain the status quo.

Notwithstanding the impact of the soon-to-be-published Free Press poll, this could be the first election in a very long time where we go to the polls with virtually no idea of which party has the momentum. Although that is difficult for those of us with no sense of delayed gratification, it will make for a most interesting election night.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.