Excluding reserves from survey skews jobless rate: economist

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OTTAWA — Manitoba’s unemployment rate would shoot up more than half a percentage point if unemployment on reserves was factored into the monthly calculations, a national think-tank reported this week.

David Macdonald, a senior economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, pulled together some numbers after NDP aboriginal affairs critic Niki Ashton criticized the federal government for failing to keep track of unemployment on reserves each month.

Ashton says the fact Statistics Canada does not conduct its monthly Labour Force Survey on reserves is “irresponsible” and a sign the federal government isn’t trying to understand the vast economic issues facing First Nations.

The only unemployment data available from Statistics Canada for reserves currently comes from the National Household Survey of 2011, which provides a snapshot of what the unemployment rate was during May 2011.

Using the data available from the household and labour force surveys, Macdonald estimates Manitoba’s unemployment rate would have been about 0.6 percentage points higher last month than the 5.2 per cent reported by Statistics Canada.

The NHS in 2011 estimated the unemployment rate among all aboriginals — on and off reserve, including First Nations, Inuit and Métis — in Manitoba was 13.8 per cent, compared to 6.2 per cent for the entire province. The NHS reported the unemployment rate on individual reserves is most often between 18 and 25 per cent.

“We are actively excluding the poorest places in our country,” said Macdonald. “It’s a case of out of sight, out of mind.”

He estimated the unemployment rate nationally would increase 0.2 points, which he said is significant considering on-reserve residents account for one per cent of the Canadian population. Saskatchewan would be the most affected, with its unemployment rate rising 0.7 points.

“When you look at unemployment rates, it looks like the Prairies are doing great,” said Macdonald. “But you get a very distorted view of what the number is. It’s not a fair reflection of what is really going on.”

Statistics Canada says the agency doesn’t collect data on reserves because it is too expensive.

“Indian reserves have been excluded from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) due to the serious challenges in contacting and interviewing potential respondents,” said a Statistics Canada spokeswoman, in an email to the Free Press. “Many live in remote locations not easily accessible to LFS interviewers and given the short data collection period each month and the large effort and cost associated with travelling to these locations, the LFS is not collected on reserves.”

Employment Minister Jason Kenney said Statistics Canada has never done the survey on reserves because of practical challenges.

“I have raised this with Statistics Canada and have asked that it come up with suggestions on how it can get better labour market information from reserves, because we do know that unemployment rates are typically far too high on aboriginal reserves,” Kenney said in question period Monday. “That is why our government has invested record amounts in skills development and job-training programs for aboriginal people so as to ensure that they can benefit in Canada’s prosperity.”

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca