Glover holds edge in name recognition, poll shows

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This article was published 02/10/2021 (1827 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

MANITOBA Progressive Conservative party leadership candidate Heather Stefanson has held the roles of deputy premier, and health, justice and families minister, and has been MLA for Tuxedo for more than two decades.

However, when it comes to name recognition, opponent Shelly Glover is slightly more well-known to Manitobans.

A Probe Research poll found while both are known by three-quarters of Manitobans, 36 per cent of respondents said they are very familiar with Glover (a former MP), compared to 29 per cent for Stefanson. A further 39 per cent said they are somewhat familiar with Glover, compared to Stefanson at 43 per cent.

Together, it gives Glover a small edge over Stefanson: 75 per cent to 72 per cent.

The poll of 1,000 Manitobans was taken Sept. 7-20 by Probe Research, a time when Stefanson and Glover had declared they would run for the vacant party leadership role, along with MLA Shannon Martin. Martin later pulled out the day before the official deadline.

As well, while the polling was ongoing, former PC party chief financial officer Ken Lee said he was going to run but his candidacy was later rejected by the party.

When asked who would be the party best leader and premier, Stefanson gets the nod with about one-half of respondents making her their first or second choice in a three-person contest; Glover was the pick of about four in 10.

Interestingly, it may not matter which candidate the Tories name leader in an Oct. 30 voter: half of those polled say they would at least think about marking the ballot for a Progressive Conservative candidate, no matter if the leader is Stefanson or Glover.

In what could be seen as potential bad news for Stefanson, the poll did find seven in 10 — including more than half of voters who marked a ballot for the Tories in the 2019 election — believe the party would be better off with a new leader who wasn’t a sitting member in former premier Brian Pallister’s cabinet.

Curtis Brown of Probe Research said half of those polled considering the Tories in the next election no matter who the leader is means “from the party’s point of view, it was probably beneficial for the party to change leaders.”

“The question is whether to have someone from outside or someone inside be leader,” said Brown.

When asked whether they believe some of Pallister’s cabinet ministers and MLAs “were effective at working behind the scenes to change government policies,” only 10 per cent strongly agreed, while another 42 per cent somewhat agreed.

Political scientist Chris Adams, rector of St. Paul’s College at the University of Manitoba, said he found it interesting while half would consider voting for the Tories with a new leader, when it comes to past PC voters, it is even higher no matter who the party picks as leader.

“Eight out of 10 (PC) voters would be willing to vote for the party, regardless of the leader,” said Adams.

“Conservatives and Progressive Conservative supporters are loyal to their party. They vote that way provincially and federally, as opposed to the Liberals and NDP supporters who can switch.”

Adams said Glover has strong name recognition because she was the senior Tory cabinet minister for Manitoba for a few years during the Harper government. “She was prominent. She did the ribbon-cutting and she was minister of heritage.”

With a month to go, Adams said it could get ugly, because the candidates are fighting to get different sections of the party to support them.

“It will be like the leadership races of (Gary) Filmon and (Brian) Ransom and Sterling Lyon and (Sid) Spivak. I suspect Glover will attract more of the anti-establishment side… It doesn’t look like it will be a peaceful race.”

Brown cautioned while the poll is a survey of Manitobans, the actual vote for Tory leader will only be cast by members of the Progressive Conservative party.

“It’s the members, so it is always hard to tell who is ahead or behind,” he said.

“But it does show both of them have a reasonable amount of support with Manitobans — it is quite neck-and-neck.”

Probe Research said the poll has a 95 per cent level of accuracy, plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca