Stefanson sealed Tories’ fate by governing as Pallister tribute act

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 21/09/2023 (721 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s no surprise Manitoba’s Progressive Conservatives are on their way to defeat when voters go to the polls Oct. 3. They’ve been on that path for well over two years.

Other than a small blip in the polls following a Hail Mary 2023 budget — where the Tories opened the purse strings after seven years of funding cuts — the PCs have been well behind the NDP in public opinion polls since June 2021, particularly in Winnipeg, where it matters the most.

The gap between the Tories and the NDP in Winnipeg has ranged from 23 to 29 percentage points for most of the past two years. The Tories narrowed the gap slightly to 16 points in a June poll. However, the small gain was temporary. A new Probe Research poll released this week shows the NDP lead in Winnipeg is back up to 29 percentage points.

That comes as no surprise, either. Long-term trends in politics usually suggest perceptions are entrenched and not easily changed.

“These numbers are more like (where) they have been for two years,” said Probe Research president Scott MacKay. “The (June) poll set the tone with the pundits that this could be a close election, but it doesn’t look close now.”

This race was never close, not with the Tories 16 to 29 percentage points behind the NDP in Winnipeg for that length of time. Historical voting patterns show the PCs must at least tie the NDP in Winnipeg to win government. They’ve been nowhere near that for more than two years, even after they changed leaders in November 2021.

Historical voting patterns show the PCs must at least tie the NDP in Winnipeg to win government. They’ve been nowhere near that for more than two years, even after they changed leaders in November 2021.

The Tories made temporary gains in the spring when they tried to present a more progressive brand of government. That collapsed after Premier Heather Stefanson enlisted hard-right conservatives to run the party’s election campaign, including the appointment of former Conservative MP Candice Bergen (who represented Portage-Lisgar for 14 years) as co-chair.

Bergen was a fierce opponent of vaccine mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic and a supporter of the Ottawa “freedom convoy.” In May she told a group of youths during a reception at the Manitoba legislature that many students in the province have been “brainwashed” by the public school system.

Under Bergen and other hard-right strategists, the party has proposed deep, across-the-board tax cuts, an accelerated balanced-budget timeline (which would require draconian spending cuts) and a pledge to enact “parental rights” legislation, a move that panders to the Tories’ socially conservative base.

Those campaign pledges may work well in some parts of southern, rural Manitoba, but they don’t fly in progressive Winnipeg, where the Tories desperately need seats to remain in power.

Given the choice between nearly $1 billion in new tax cuts (and slashing spending to implement those cuts), or fixing health care and other front-line services, most Manitobans want the latter. It’s a clear ballot-box question that’s eliciting a predictable response.

Given the choice between nearly $1 billion in new tax cuts, or fixing health care and other front-line services, most Manitobans want the latter.

So why did the PC party allow hard-right conservatives to infiltrate its central campaign? Party officials misread the political success conservative parties are having in other parts of the country, such as Alberta and at the federal level, and assumed those hard-right agendas would work here. They don’t, at least not in Winnipeg and many parts of rural Manitoba. That will become painfully obvious on election day.

Is it too late for the Tories to turn things around? It was too late for them two years ago, the moment Stefanson decided to embrace most of former premier Brian Pallister’s policies. She failed to shore up support in vote-rich Winnipeg (except for the recent blip in the spring) because she continued to promote the same policies as her predecessor. Stefanson has failed to connect with the priorities of Manitobans even after promising two years ago to spend more time listening to the public than her former boss did.

There is little difference between Stefanson and Pallister, whether it’s on tax cuts (including borrowing money to pay for them), waging a losing battle with Ottawa over the carbon tax, opposing harm-reduction programs to combat drug addiction or perennial battles with labour groups. The time-for-a-change dynamic that took a foothold two years ago has not subsided.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

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The question for the Tories now is: what do they do post-election? What political direction do they take?

In all likelihood, Stefanson will step down as leader after the election (maybe even on election night) and the party will have to decide on its future identity.

In all likelihood, Stefanson will step down as leader after the election (maybe even on election night) and the party will have to decide on its future identity. Do the Tories continue down the path they embarked on during this campaign and follow the hard-right conservative direction of the United Conservative Party in Alberta or the federal Conservatives under leader Pierre Poilievre? Or do they return to their progressive-conservative roots and rebuild a party more suited to the political environment in Manitoba?

For now, it’s clear the hard-right agenda doesn’t work in Manitoba. Most voters want a more balanced, tolerant and compassionate brand of government to represent them.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.