Tories tumble into deep, dark hole at the end of campaign trail

Opinion

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This article was published 28/09/2023 (741 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

After seven years in office, it appears Manitoba’s Progressive Conservative government has reached the end of its road.

A Probe Research poll released last week showed the NDP well ahead, with 49 per cent overall support in the province, compared with 38 per cent for the Tories.

More important, the NDP has a commanding lead in Winnipeg (the main battleground of Manitoba elections) with 57 per cent support, more than double the PC party’s 28 per cent.

With just a few days left before election day, the odds appear insurmountable for the Tories. The party has lagged behind the NDP in public opinion polling for most of the past two years, particularly in Winnipeg. A change in leadership in November 2021, when Heather Stefanson took over as premier from an embattled Brian Pallister, has not helped turn the party’s fortunes around. In many ways, it’s worse off today than it was under Pallister.

The Tories have unsuccessfully tried to find support through wedge issues, some of which, it appears, have backfired. Their pledge to fight violent crime, and attempt to paint the NDP as a soft-on-crime party, has not resonated with voters. The same Probe Research poll found Manitobans have no more confidence in the Tories to fight crime than the NDP.

That may have something to do with the fact violent crime has soared under the PCs. Whatever they’ve done over the past seven years hasn’t worked. Violent crime is worse today than it was in 2016 when they took office.

The Tories have claimed, falsely, that the New Democrats plan to “defund” police if they win government. Parties sometimes invent things about their opponents — this is one of them.

Ironically, the Tories have already “defunded” police. They froze operating grants to the Winnipeg Police Service between 2016 and 2022. Adjusted for inflation, that’s a funding cut.

The PCs’ pledge in this election to cut almost $1 billion in taxes has also found little support among Manitobans. Only four per cent of respondents in the Probe Research poll identified tax cuts as a priority. On the ballot-box question of whether Manitobans want $1 billion worth of tax cuts (which would require deep spending cuts) or more resources for health care, education and other front-line services, the Tories find themselves squarely in the loss column.

Not surprisingly, health care was among the top priorities of respondents in the poll. That’s bad news for the Tories, since only 18 per cent of Manitobans believe that party would do the best job of improving health care, compared with 46 per cent for the NDP.

A similar breakdown applied to addictions and mental-health issues, another high-priority area for Manitobans. Nearly half of Manitobans (46 per cent) believe the NDP would do the best job of making improvements in those areas, compared with 16 per cent for the Tories.

The polling results explain why the Progressive Conservative party has resorted to sensationalist attack ads this week. In a full-page ad that ran in this newspaper Wednesday, the Tories again dredged up NDP Leader Wab Kinew’s legal troubles from 20 years ago. The ads also excoriate NDP candidate Mark Wasyliw for working as a defence lawyer (apparently the Tories don’t believe people accused of crimes are entitled to legal counsel) and claim, falsely, that the NDP is in cahoots with the federal Liberal government.

Kinew has turned his life around and successfully recovered from an alcohol addiction, which fuelled his destructive behaviour as a youth. Most voters would likely view that as an inspiring accomplishment that could help others in similar circumstances. Ridiculing it in attack ads is juvenile and offensive.

Research is mixed on the effectiveness of negative advertising in campaigns, including whether they change voting intentions or simply reinforce existing perceptions. In this case, the toxicity of the ads and the political environment in which they’ve been unleashed will almost certainly backfire on the Tories, particularly in Winnipeg where they need votes the most.

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Exploiting the pain of families whose loved ones are believed to be buried in the Prairie Green Landfill will also hurt the Tories at the polls. The PC party’s far-right campaign strategists are running ads lauding Stefanson’s decision to “stand firm” against any options to safely search for the remains of Indigenous women believed to be slain by an alleged serial killer.

The Tories have gone to a very dark place with this messaging. Trying to capitalize on the misery of grieving families for political gain is as low as it goes.

The PCs were headed for defeat long before the election campaign started. The Tories’ disastrous management of the province’s health-care system alone was enough to put them back on the opposition benches. The party’s recent shift to the far right and the amateur tactics of those running the party’s central campaign will likely cost them more seats in Winnipeg than they were already on track to lose. This was one of the worst campaigns the Tories have ever run in Manitoba.

That will become evident next Tuesday when all the votes have been cast.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.