Most Manitobans would vote for Harris: poll

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This article was published 05/11/2024 (452 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A new poll shows sweeping support for a Harris presidency on the northern side of the Pembina-Emerson border and widespread concern about the international fallout should Republicans win today’s U.S. election.

Probe Research surveyed a representative sample of adults in Manitoba on their hypothetical voting intentions and predictions about the results in the lead-up to the vote.

Seven out of 10 Manitobans would vote for Democratic hopefuls Kamala Harris and Tim Walz if they could cast ballots, the survey found.

A total of 800 adults living in Manitoba took part in the online poll conducted between Oct. 28 and Nov. 1. Participants are members of the local research firm’s proprietary panel and another national online panel.

Almost 80 per cent of respondents indicated they have been paying very or somewhat close attention to the race.

“It is very telling and I’m definitely not surprised. People living in Canada, whether you’re an American citizen living in Canada or just a Canadian citizen, we’re all very invested in this election,” said Jacob Wesoky, executive vice-chairman of Democrats Abroad Canada.

While 43 per cent of them are predicting a Harris-Walz win, 27 per cent are anticipating a Trump-Vance victory. The remainder are unsure of what will happen.

Pollster Curtis Brown said he was interested to learn how overwhelming the support is for Harris and Walz across Manitoba.

Democrat supporters outnumber Republican supporters, who accounted for just under a quarter of decided voters, in almost every demographic group.

A slight majority of self-described Progressive Conservative voters in Manitoba indicated they favour former president Donald Trump and JD Vance.

“The level of concern that people have about what would happen if Trump is elected again and the effect that’s going to have on Manitoba and Canada, I think, is pretty important,” Brown, a partner at Probe Research, told the Free Press on the eve of the hotly contested race.

“We don’t get a say in it, but yet some of these policies can affect us pretty deeply.”

Almost three quarters of participants agree with the statement that a Trump re-election would have a “very negative effect on Canada.” Under a third of respondents expressed the same about a Harris government.

The survey suggests the majority of Manitobans — 64 per cent — agree that many more people will seek asylum in their home province if Trump wins.

Asked about their travel habits, 37 per cent said they have cancelled or decided against taking a trip to the U.S. in the next six months because of the political climate.

“I don’t want to insult any Manitobans, but that’s just silly. The United States is not going to blow up into a civil war — not on the part of Republicans,” said Georganne Burke, a dual-citizen involved with Republicans Overseas Canada.

Burke, a political organizer based in Ottawa, said she encourages Canadians to visit America and vice versa.

As far as she is concerned, panic about Trump and his pro-nationalism approach are overinflated and Probe’s findings are not entirely surprising.

“Canada is definitely a more left-leaning country. It is also more comfortable for people to affiliate with the Democrats,” Burke said. “I’m happy that they actually can’t vote and that the only people who get the say in this are American.”

Probe Research did not provide a margin of error because its online panel is a non-probability sample.

Citing for the purpose of comparison, the firm said an overall survey of a sample of 800 Manitoba adults would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, or 19 times out of 20.

maggie.macintosh@freepress.mb.ca