Despite nervous Poilievre’s premature elucidation, rising new-look Liberals face long odds

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This article was published 19/02/2025 (255 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In poker, we’d call this a “tell.”

Last weekend, the federal Conservative party threw a pre-election Hail Mary to stall the upward momentum the federal Liberal party has demonstrated since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to step down.

Using National Flag of Canada Day as a backdrop, Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre unveiled a fairly detailed “Canada First” policy that is, for all intents and purposes, the party’s platform for the next election, which could come as soon as the end of next month. Canada First is, at first examination, a fairly impressive array of pledges, some new and some from announcements made over the last year.

It’s also a tell. If you want to know how worried the Tories are about their sliding support, you don’t have to look any further than the decision to release its campaign platform before the campaign actually begins.

In fairness, unveiling the platform now is not necessarily a bad move for the Tories given that we are definitely going to have an election in a little more than a month. Still, it does confirm they are worried about where the pre-election polling numbers are going.

So, what does Canada First entail?

In no particular order: a pledge to apply tariffs on a dollar-for-dollar basis to combat U.S. tariffs; promote new oil and gas pipelines; fast-track federal environmental approval of all critical mineral projects in northern Ontario; establish a permanent military base in Iqaluit and strengthen defences along U.S. border; remove inter-provincial trade barriers and introduce national standards for professional licensing; impose life-sentences on fentanyl “kingpins”; remove the GST on new homes under $1 million; create a tax reform task force.

There isn’t much entirely new in Canada First. Planks such as inter-provincial trade barriers, tariffs, removing GST on new homes, strengthening border security and support for new critical mineral and pipeline projects are regular placeholders in the medley of Poilievre’s greatest policy hits.

Others — particularly the war on fentanyl suppliers and the northern military base — were unveiled just prior to the Canada First rally in Ottawa.

There are also some planks that suggest, despite growing disaffection in this country with what’s happening in the United States right now, Poilievre is going to continue parroting some Trumpian talking points.

One Canada First plank promises to “end cancel culture and stop the war on our history.” Poilievre will do this by erecting a monument to Canadians who fought in Afghanistan and restoring screened images of Terry Fox to passports.

Taken together, Canada First is entirely consistent with the tack Poilievre was on prior to the trade war with the U.S. and Trudeau’s resignation. Which is to say, it’s not likely to serve as a catalyst for restoring Tory support, which has taken a nosedive in recent weeks.

All that leaves Poilievre face to face with a much different electoral challenge than he faced just a few weeks ago.

In most elections, veteran political strategists know that when the so-called winds of change begin to blow through the electorate, there is little an incumbent governing party can do to stay in power. This provides ample opportunities for an opposition party to seize power simply on the weakness of the governing party’s brand.

The winds of change also represent the equivalent of a free pass for opposition parties looking to take down a government. “We may not be better but, hey, we’re not the other guys” is tried and true messaging in an election that is yours to lose.

The only thing that can derail this time-honoured phenomenon is if the governing party transitions to a new leader who embraces change as their brand. This is the “political unicorn” theory of leadership: a new face that is seen as competent and compelling but sufficiently divorced from the old leader and party brand that they can offer themselves up as an agent of change.

A unicorn like this doesn’t appear very often.

The Manitoba Progressive Conservatives could not save themselves in the 2023 vote by dumping uber-unpopular Brian Pallister and embracing Heather Stefanson. Kim Campbell could not save the Progressive Conservatives in 1993 after she took over from a beleaguered Brian Mulroney.

In short, there are many more examples of new leaders failing to save their parties than there are of new leaders breathing life into a party on its deathbed.

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Where does that leave Mark Carney, the acknowledged front-runner in the leadership race? He cannot be considered a bona fide unicorn, but polls suggest he might have unicorn-adjacent potential.

National polls released this week show the Conservative lead has dwindled from the high to mid-20s to single digits. Seat projections have also shifted, with many now showing the Tories getting precariously close to 172 seats, the number needed for a majority.

For the Liberals to fully derail the Conservative party’s march to victory, they would still need to win back an enormous amount of support. And they’d have to do that while managing the transition to a new leader.

A complete Liberal recovery, which would imply a historic Conservative collapse, remains the long-shot scenario in the upcoming election. It’s just not quite as long a shot as it used to be.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.