Without Trudeau to target, the Tories lose their way

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This article was published 15/02/2025 (277 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Canada’s Conservatives have a unity problem. Not with Canada but with themselves.

The whole country united quickly and decisively against the threatening behaviour of U.S. President Donald Trump. Not so much, all Conservatives.

Ever since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned and Trump won re-election, Canadian Conservatives have struggled with finding new footing in this rapidly shifting political landscape. United against Trudeau is not the same as united against Trump.

That struggle is now showing up at the polls. Liberals are up, Conservatives are down. Canadians aren’t keen on any ambiguity when it comes to Canadian independence.

Alberta United Conservative Party premier Danielle Smith started the conservative unravelling. A “negotiate, don’t retaliate” proponent, she was the only leader to withhold her signature from the unified “Team Canada” declaration of all first ministers at their Jan. 15 meeting. Calling in virtually from somewhere near the Panama Canal, she made it clear that an “everything on the table,” “dollar for dollar,” approach to retaliating against Trump did not have her support. She would never include cutting energy supplies to the U.S. from her province.

Smith’s witting partner is Trump-admirer, businessperson, putative Alberta investor, and former Conservative Party leadership hopeful Kevin O’Leary. He once hosted Dragons’ Den; he now shills for a deeply unpopular economic union with America. Smith keeps company with him, including using him to broker a handshake photo-op with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate. To many Canadians, this was Team Alberta, not Team Canada.

Ontario Progressive Conservative premier Doug Ford pulled the conservative unity thread the other way, toward the centre. Although erratic and impulsive in his negotiating strategy (cut electricity one day, build Fortress Can-Am the next), he’s been crystal clear in his pro-Canada rhetoric. He literally wore the flag on his head, showing up to the first ministers meeting sporting a “Canada’s Not for Sale” ballcap.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Domestic politics are at play here. Ford has called an election demanding a new, decisive mandate to deal with Trump with himself cast as “Captain Canada.” Smith’s province and party detest and distrust the Liberal government’s energy and climate policies so much, that unalloyed aligning with Trudeau would undermine her leadership.

This is making things difficult for federal Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre. It showed in his shifting responses. He cavilled at first on what Canada’s response should be, squeezed by the polarity between Smith and Ford, refusing to state how forcefully the country should respond. He has since condemned Trump’s 25 per cent tariff threat as “unjustified” and stated, “Canada will never be the 51st state.” But his first response missed the moment, creating an impression of hesitation and doubt, not about how Canadian he is but how ‘Trumpian’ he is.

Poilievre is rapidly making up for it with a raft of nationalistic policy proposals. He called for eliminating all interprovincial trade barriers to buying two new heavy icebreakers and building a permanent military base in the Arctic. And he is actively rebranding himself, his party, and his policies now as “Canada First” as his way of showing the flag.

Seeking to echo Wilfrid Laurier’s famous proclamation of “Canada first, Canada last, Canada always”, he runs the risk of channelling Donald Trump’s “America First” to swing voters preferring more unalloyed, unambiguous patriotism.

That contrast was heightened when former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper strongly stated last week, “I would be prepared to impoverish the country and not be annexed, if that was the option we’re facing.”

But the real explanation of this Conservative dilemma resides with Conservative supporters not their leaders. Conservative voters in Canada have always tilted towards Trump. A poll last March found 41 per cent of them preferred Trump winning to 37 per cent preferring Biden, at the time. Even now, with all that Trump has said and done, that predilection remains.

A poll this month by Pallas Data showed 40 per cent of CPC voters today retain a favourable impression of Donald Trump, compared to 39 per cent who do not. When asked whether they approved of Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs, 53 per cent of Conservative Party supporters said they did not approve, compared to 52 per cent of all Canadians who said they did.

Navigating this fissure will require political dexterity by Pierre Poilievre. Not with movement conservatives (they believe in him fully) but with unaligned voters who wanted a change of prime minister but not yet, perhaps, a change of government.

In politics, you are defined by your enemies, not just your friends.

The animus that bound Canadians and especially Conservatives — Justin Trudeau — is gone. The animus that now binds Canadians, but not necessarily Conservatives — Donald Trump — has arrived.

Time for Conservatives to read the room and check their guest list.

David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government.