Liberals hope for gains in Manitoba to get foothold in Prairies

Opinion

There may not be a huge amount of voter support for Liberal Leader Mark Carney to mine in Manitoba.

But in a federal election that most polls now say is the Liberal party’s to lose, every single riding — including two or three the Liberals could pick up in Manitoba — have become increasingly important.

Carney spent a full day in Winnipeg Tuesday, rallying Liberal troops and making several re-announcements at New Flyer Industries. He met with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, lunched with members of the Filipino community and held a rally at the convention centre in the evening, where hundreds of party faithful showed up to greet the popular leader.

“Canadians want a strong leader who can meet the moment,” said Liberal candidate Ben Carr, who is seeking re-election in Winnipeg South Centre and who, along with Carney’s wife, Diana Fox Carney, helped introduce the Liberal leader. “They’re not interested in toxicity.”

The excitement around Carney — who is seen by many as the steady hand Canada needs to take on U.S. President Donald Trump and his tariff threats — is infectious.

Politics has always been about party leaders and the perceptions the public has of them. Carney is a fresh face for many voters. He’s also the polar opposite of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose sloganeering and attack-dog style of politics seems to be wearing thin.

It’s something Carney pointed out several times during his near-30-minute rally speech, saying Poilievre’s reflexes are always to “cut and destroy.”

“Negativity won’t win the trade war,” said Carney. “Negativity won’t bring down the cost of groceries.”

Carney, though, is also an unknown quantity in the world of politics, having never held elected office. That can be an asset or a liability, depending on one’s perspective of career politicians. Poilievre, for example, is often criticized for having little to no real-life experience outside of politics.

That’s also something the Liberal leader harped on several times during his speech.

Carney’s currency is in economics. His stints as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England would undoubtedly serve him well in the Prime Minster’s Office, especially in the face of punishing tariffs from the U.S. and the need for Canada to diversify its export markets.

Many Canadians are understandably nervous about what Trump’s tariffs could mean to their jobs, their livelihoods and ultimately to Canada’s standard of living. So when someone like Carney comes along and radiates stability, optimism and confidence, voters pay attention. And it’s showing up in public opinion polls, where the Carney-led Liberals are now in majority government territory.

The Liberal leader’s full day of events in Manitoba so early in the campaign is likely a sign the party believes it can make inroads here. There isn’t a lot for it to gain in Manitoba, with Conservative support still strong in most areas outside of Winnipeg. There are two or three ridings the Liberals could realistically snatch from their opponents in the capital city and in the north.

The Liberals had four seats in Manitoba, all in Winnipeg, when Parliament was dissolved last month after Carney called a snap election. If the polls hold, they should be able to hang on to all of them, namely Winnipeg South Centre, Winnipeg South, Saint Boniface-Saint Vital and Winnipeg North. There are 14 federal ridings in Manitoba.

The most obvious seat for the Liberals to win back would be Winnipeg West, where Conservative candidate Marty Morantz defeated Liberal incumbent Doug Eyolfson, an emergency room doctor, by only 460 votes in 2021. Eyolfson is running again.

The Liberals are likely focusing on Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, where Indigenous candidate Rebecca Chartrand, who finished second in the 2015 federal election with 42 per cent of the vote, is running again against longtime NDP incumbent Niki Ashton. About three-quarters of people in that northern riding are Indigenous.

Meanwhile, incumbent Conservative candidate Rachel Dancho could be in a dog fight with the Liberals in Kildonan-St. Paul, especially as NDP support continues to migrate to the Liberals.

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Even Winnipeg Centre, held by NDP incumbent Leah Gazan — whose party has owned the riding for most of the past two decades — may be in play for the Liberals, although it’s a long shot.

Carney’s presence in Manitoba will no doubt help the Liberals’ prospects in those ridings, especially for a party that has little support in the West. The more time he spends in Manitoba, the more it appears he cares about the Prairies.

“I stand before you because Canada has given me everything,” Carney told a cheering partisan crowd. “And in return, I’m ready to give everything for Canada.”

Carney’s presence here was a calculated one — he’ll likely be back for more. That could ultimately be an important factor when all the votes are counted on April 28.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.