Fuelled by patriotism, more Canadians will head to the ballot box this time around

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/04/2025 (195 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Voter turnout in this month’s federal election could be one of the highest in decades, if the patriotic fervour sweeping through Canada is any indication.

The question is, which political party will it benefit the most?

Voter turnout in Canadian federal elections has fallen dramatically since the 1980s. Back then, it was common for about three-quarters of eligible voters to cast a ballot.

There were elections in the early 1900s where voter turnout dipped below the 70 per cent mark. But by and large, from the 1940s to the 1980s, it was between 70 and 79 per cent.

In nine federal elections during that period, voter turnout was above 75 per cent, including in 1984 and 1988, when it was exactly 75.3 per cent (when former prime minister Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives swept into power with two large majorities).

There were only three times when voter turnout fell below 70 per cent between 1940 and 1988, but barely. It was 69.9 per cent in 1940, 67.5 per cent in 1953 and 69.3 per cent in 1980 (which was surprisingly low, considering that was the same year Quebec held its first of two referendums on separating from Canada).

But those numbers started to fall in the early 1990s as Canadians either became less interested in federal politics, or thought their vote didn’t matter — or some combination of both. Whatever the case, political apathy began to set in somewhere around the mid-1990s.

Voter turnout fell below 70 per cent in 1993 (69.6 per cent), the year former Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien won his first term in government. It hasn’t recovered since. It fell further to 67 per cent in 1997 and 64.1 per cent in 2000.

The worst voter turnout in recent decades was a paltry 58.8 per cent in 2008, when former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper won his second minority government. It has ranged between 61.1 per cent and 68.3 per cent since.

Even the hype around former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s inaugural win in 2015 wasn’t enough to push voter turnout back over the 70 per cent mark. It was 68.3 per cent that year.

That will likely change in this election. Canadians are paying attention to federal politics in a way they haven’t for decades. And that will almost certainly be reflected in the polls.

As the stock market continues to crash and as Canada’s economy is increasingly under siege by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, voters want a government in Ottawa that can protect the country’s sovereignty and its standard of living.

Right now, that seems to be Mark Carney and the Liberals, who are polling consistently five to six percentage points ahead of the Conservatives and could win as many as 200 seats (out of 343 in the House of Commons). That would be the most in the party’s history.

It’s hard to tell for sure which party would benefit the most from a higher voter turnout. When people want change, more of them often show up at the polls.

But is Mark Carney change? He’s not Justin Trudeau, but he is the leader of a party that’s been in power for 10 years. Still, he’s seen as a new face. More importantly, he portrays an image of stability, exudes confidence and possesses the kind of statesmanship qualities Canadians are yearning for right now.

He appears to be convincing many Canadians that he’s the right person for the job, especially given his background as former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.

It’s all well and good to be up in the polls, but political parties have to translate that into votes. They have to get the vote out during advanced polling and on election day.

Given the enthusiasm around the Carney campaign, the Liberals could be the ones to benefit the most from a higher voter turnout. If Canadians are flocking to him as the person to take on Trump and protect the interests of Canada, he stands to gain the most.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre should have no problem getting his base out to vote. But there hasn’t been any growth there for weeks. If anything, it has softened. He’s not connecting with Canadians outside of that base, which is concentrated largely in the West.

So how high will voter turnout go in this election? I wouldn’t be surprised — given the tectonic shift in Canada’s political landscape over the past two months — if it returned to pre-1990s levels. I would be shocked if it didn’t top the 70 per cent mark.

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Voting in this election will likely be seen as a patriotic duty, the likes of which Canadians have not felt in a long time.

I will go out on a limb and predict it will hit 72 per cent, which would be the highest since 1988.

It’s unclear how long this heightened interest in federal politics will last. Political apathy may very well settle in again in the near future.

But in the meantime, Canadians will likely be heading to the polls in droves this month like they haven’t done in over 30 years.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.