Crime down but politicians aren’t taking credit — and there’s a reason for that

Opinion

Crime is down in Winnipeg. It’s been a while since we could say that in a city plagued by stabbings, murders and drug-fuelled violence.

The Winnipeg Police Service’s 2024 annual report, released last week, shows the city’s violent crime severity index fell in 2024. Overall crime was also down — albeit only slightly — but for the second year in a row. Better still, Winnipeg’s crime rate continues to trend downward in 2025.

It’s a welcome shift for a city that’s seen more than its share of bleak headlines about robberies, shootings and murders.

So, what gives? What’s driving it?

It’s the kind of news that should be on every politician’s lips. But it isn’t. Why? Because the truth is: no one really knows why crime is falling — and that makes it awkward for governments looking to either take credit or shift blame.

When crime goes up, politicians of all stripes are quick to point fingers — usually at each other. The opposition blames the government for being too soft. The government blames courts, federal laws, or “root causes.” And when crime goes down? Crickets.

That’s not because the drop isn’t real. It is, even if it’s only a marginal decline. One or two years of falling crime numbers is not a trend. But if it continues for the rest of 2025 and into next year, it could be the beginning of one.

Winnipeg’s falling crime rate in 2024 — particularly the dip in the violent crime severity index — didn’t come on the heels of sweeping bail reform or tougher sentencing laws. Which means the usual talking points about “catch-and-release” justice or “soft-on-crime” judges don’t hold up when the numbers are moving in the opposite direction of the rhetoric.

If tougher bail conditions and longer jail terms are supposed to be the magic fix, then why is crime falling in Winnipeg without them?

There have been no major changes to bail laws (beyond some recent tinkering around the edges by the federal government), no provincial crackdowns on sentencing, and no dramatic increases in incarceration. And yet, we’re seeing fewer violent incidents and a broader dip in criminal activity across the board.

So what’s really going on?

The short answer: it’s complicated.

Crime doesn’t rise or fall based on a single law or policy. It’s driven by a web of social, economic, and cultural factors — most of which don’t fit neatly into a press release or campaign slogan.

Perhaps some government initiatives have helped. For example, crimes involving bear spray were down 29.4 per cent compared with 2023. Last year was the first full year that bear-spray restrictions were in force.

There’s also the steady, behind-the-scenes work of police, youth outreach programs, and housing supports. These don’t make for flashy headlines, but they can tip the balance over time.

The point is, if we’re going to blame governments when crime goes up — and we always do — then maybe we need to consider what they might be doing right when it goes down.

That doesn’t mean handing out gold stars for every drop in the crime rate. But it does mean acknowledging that prevention and stability matter — and that the loudest voices calling for longer sentences and harsher bail conditions aren’t always offering solutions that match the data.

There’s no evidence that tougher sentencing alone reduces violent crime. In fact, Canada’s own history — and reams of international research — suggest otherwise. What does reduce crime? Housing. Jobs. Mental health supports. Community engagement. Stable funding for front-line services.

These are less politically sexy than “tough on crime” slogans, but they’re the things that likely make a difference over time. Even then, no one can prove with evidence what specifically resulted in the recent drop in crime.

To be clear, Winnipeg still has a long way to go. The city’s violent crime rate remains among the highest in Canada. A two-year decline in the overall crime rate doesn’t mean we’ve solved anything — only that we may have turned a corner. And corners can turn back.

“By no means is this like a victory, but it’s trending in the right direction,” said Winnipeg police Chief Gene Bowers.

Still, it’s worth noting. It’s worth thinking critically about what’s driving it — and what isn’t.

If bail reform wasn’t the key driver of crime increases in recent years, then it’s also not likely the silver bullet for solving them. If harsher penalties weren’t responsible for past declines, then pushing for more jail time now may be missing the mark.

This isn’t about letting people off easy. It’s about what actually works. And the numbers coming out of Winnipeg — quietly, steadily — suggest that we may need to broaden the conversation about public safety beyond courts and jails.

Crime is down, not because we got tougher. But maybe because — in some corners of the city, and in some parts of government — we got a little smarter.

Just don’t expect anyone to put that on a campaign poster.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca