Promising news on crime front underscores need to invest in people, communities

For the first time in years, there’s a flicker of good news on the violent crime front in Manitoba.

Statistics Canada data released last week show Manitoba’s violent crime severity index dipped by 2.24 per cent in 2024 — a modest but notable decrease after years in which the rate increased.

It’s the first drop in the index since 2020, the only other year it fell over the past decade.

From 2014 to 2024, Manitoba’s violent crime severity index — which gives greater weight to more serious crimes such as murder and aggravated assault — soared from 127.9 to 213.83. It’s a significant jump that can’t be sugarcoated; it occurred under both Progressive Conservative and NDP governments.

So, is the latest number the beginning of a downward trajectory after years of increasingly disturbing headlines or is it just a statistical blip?

It’s probably too early to tell.

Crime trends rarely move in straight lines. A one-year decline, especially one as slight as 2.24 per cent, doesn’t necessarily signal a long-term shift. What it might suggest, though, is that some recent interventions — whether policing, community-based, or social in nature — are having an incremental effect.

Or it could simply reflect a fluctuation in a few crime categories that weigh heavily on the index, such as homicide, sexual assault or gun violence.

Manitoba still has one of the highest violent crime rates in the country. Winnipeg, in particular, continues to have troubling levels of violent incidents, including youth-involved homicides, stabbings, and robberies.

It’s virtually impossible to prove with evidence why crime rises or falls. There are too many factors driving crime rates, including changing demographics. But it’s always good news when there’s a decline of any kind.

Before politicians start patting themselves on the back, however, let’s not forget where we’re starting from.

Manitoba still has one of the highest violent crime rates in the country. Winnipeg, in particular, continues to have troubling levels of violent incidents, including youth-involved homicides, stabbings, and robberies.

So yes, a decline is welcome, but it’s a long way from enough.

Violent crime doesn’t occur in a vacuum. It’s often a symptom of deeper issues that governments and society have either failed to fix, or have made worse.

Take a walk through downtown Winnipeg on any given night and you’ll see what many front-line workers have been trying to say for years: mental illness, addiction, homelessness, and trauma are at the root of much of the crime we see in our communities.

The so-called random assaults or property crimes are often not so random at all. They’re the result of untreated mental health conditions, people in withdrawal, or individuals simply trying to survive on the streets.

Policing alone can’t fix that.

Neither can tough-on-crime rhetoric that ignores the systemic causes of criminal behaviour — including poverty, colonialism, and a justice system that continues to disproportionately incarcerate Indigenous Manitobans.

Recidivism remains high in Manitoba, and without better supports before, during and after incarceration, the same people keep cycling through the system, creating more victims and more trauma.

About three-quarters of adults incarcerated in Manitoba jails are Indigenous, despite making up less than one-fifth of the population. That’s not just a statistic, it’s an indictment of the systems we’ve built, or failed to build.

The solutions aren’t a mystery. We need sustained, long-term investment in mental health services, addiction treatment, culturally relevant programming, and housing. We need to make sure those services exist not only in Winnipeg but in rural and northern communities where resources are often scarce or non-existent.

And yes, we also need a functioning justice system that enforces laws and keeps violent offenders off the streets. There’s nothing compassionate about allowing dangerous individuals to repeatedly harm others without intervention.

But to break the cycle, we need to do more than lock people up and hope they get better in jail — because they usually don’t. Recidivism remains high in Manitoba, and without better supports before, during and after incarceration, the same people keep cycling through the system, creating more victims and more trauma.

Stricter bail laws, or better enforcement of monitoring those released pending their court cases, may help a little. But calls by the federal Conservative party for automatic denial of bail for certain repeat offenders is not only unconstitutional — and would be stricken down by the courts — it would do little, if anything, to reduce violent crime.

So where does that leave us?

Cautiously optimistic, maybe. But mostly still on high alert.

The 2.24 per cent drop is good news, but it’s not a reason to get complacent. It’s a reminder that change is possible, but only if we’re willing to do the tough, unglamorous work of fixing the foundations. That means investing in people and communities — not just in more jail cells or patrol cars.

We’ve seen what happens when we don’t: crime goes up, trust in public institutions goes down, and more people get hurt.

Let’s not wait for another spike to remember that.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.