Cracks begin to appear in Kinew’s rock-solid popularity

Wab Kinew is the most popular Manitoba premier since Gary Doer.

During his most popular time as leader, from 2003-07, Doer regularly scored approval ratings higher than 70 per cent — and even reached 81 per cent approval in 2008.

Kinew has achieved Doer-like numbers.

In June, the Angus Reid Institute published its quarterly poll of Canadians’ perceptions of premiers and Kinew scored a 68 per cent approval rating — the highest in the country.

“For six straight quarters,” the poll stated, “Kinew has earned at least 60 per cent approval and he bests all others by at least 10 points this wave.”

Manitobans are caught up in Kinew-mania, too.

A Free Press-Probe Research poll taken around the same time as the Angus Reid poll shows 57 per cent support for Kinew’s NDP — with 62 per cent support in Winnipeg and 50 per cent outside the capital city limits.

“It could be because of the wildfire response and people wanting to rally around the government with so many evacuees here,” Probe Research pollster Mary Agnes Welch said when publishing the findings, “but for the NDP to be that strong outside the Perimeter Highway is unheard of.”

Kinew has earned his popularity by sheer personality and achieving what Free Press columnist Tom Brodbeck has called “a centrist political balancing act” by maintaining Tory tax cuts while increasing government expenditures by 14 per cent and committing to projects like a $1-billion centre for CancerCare Manitoba.

Like Doer, Kinew’s oft-used phrase is: “The economic horse pulls the social cart.”

Doer’s staying power in office, though, came from something more than personality and policy.

Victorious leaders and political parties, especially after defeating longtime incumbents, have a honeymoon period where polls are high and little disrupts that.

The international polling firm Gallup says these periods usually last between seven to 10 months — with this amount shrinking from decades ago, when leaders would often get years of almost unconditional support.

Well, the honeymoon appears to be over and the harsh reality of governing is here.

When Kinew and the NDP were elected on Oct. 3, 2023, two facts became apparent.

The first was the Conservatives needed to reinvent themselves and, until they did, the province would be without an effective opposition. The second was that the worst enemy of the NDP was going to be the NDP.

We are now past the 18-month mark of Kinew’s NDP government and both have come true.

Conservative Leader Obby Khan, elected to the role only three months ago, has barely said much more than expressing regret at the past actions of his party, such as on this newspaper’s Niigaan and the Lone Ranger podcast).

At the same time, it’s emerged there’s infighting among NDP members and their prime constituent groups.

First, there was the messy public removal of Mark Wasyliw from the NDP caucus. Clearly with a personal axe to grind, the now-independent Fort Garry MLA has now become the premier’s worst critic in constant social media posts.

Then there was the resignation of NDP vice-president Chris Wiebe over what he called the party’s “dysfunctional leadership” and betrayal of its values. Wiebe even went so far as to say Manitoba is “living through a third age of (former Manitoba PC premier Brian) Pallister.”

Then came the much-criticized actions of Nahanni Fontaine, the minister for accessibility, who was caught saying audist and ableist things about a sign language interpreter during a graduation event — forcing Kinew to publicly defend his colleague.

Then came a series of critical public statements in Indigenous and environmental circles regarding Kinew’s proposed provincial infrastructure and resource development ideas to Prime Minister Mark Carney after the passing of the federal One Canadian Economy Act.

This prompted a July 3 piece in the Globe and Mail by local Cree activist and author Clayton Thomas-Muller. Its title says it all: “Wab Kinew’s development dreams threaten our people’s way of life.”

James Wilt of Climate Action Team Manitoba wrote an op-ed stating the premier was “fast-tracking” development while “ignoring the climate crisis.”

The remarkable thing is Doer dealt with these issues, too. He faced scandals like the Crocus Investment Fund and a problematic relationship with oil fracking development, among other issues.

One thing he could do is keep his party united, until he left in 2009 to become ambassador to the U.S.

Time will tell whether Kinew and the NDP’s popularity will be interrupted, but it’s hard not to see the emergence of noticeable lines among their members and constituent groups.

niigaan.sinclair@freepress.mb.ca