Forget defection, Poilievre should fear resignations

Although a dramatic defection of a Conservative MP captured Parliament Hill’s imagination last week, a much less dramatic resignation may turn out to be Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre’s undoing.

Nova Scotia Tory Chris d’Entremont’s decision to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government has set the hill to buzzing. And for good reason.

This unexpected move brings the Liberals one vote closer to a majority standing in the House of Commons, an accomplishment that would protect the minority government from losing a confidence vote and triggering an election.

At first blush, the floor crossing would seem to weaken Poilievre’s case to remain at the helm of the Tories beyond a January 2026 leadership review. It does not help Poilievre’s case that d’Entremont accused senior Conservatives of threatening and bullying him when word first leaked that he was thinking about crossing the floor.

In a CBC interview, d’Entremont claimed Tory House Leader Andrew Scheer and whip Chris Warkentin “barged” into his office and began yelling at him. This underlined d’Entremont’s concerns the Conservatives were more of “a frat house rather than a serious political party.”

Even with these allegations, there is still a possibility that anger over the defection will galvanize support for the embattled Tory leader.

To date, it seems party supporters prefer to spend their time condemning d’Entremont for decamping, rather than ruminating over whether Poilievre’s combative leadership style precipitated the MP’s decision to switch sides. It’s so easy to vilify a traitor, so easy that one need not be concerned about why they became treasonous.

All of which brings us to another incident in the Torydom last week that may turn out to be much more impactful.

On the eve of a key confidence vote on the Liberal budget, Edmonton Tory MP Matt Jeneroux announced he will resign his seat and leave politics no later than next spring.

Unlike d’Entremont, Jeneroux did not cite a lack of faith in Poilievre for his decision. He said he was disappointed the Conservatives did not form government in the last election and wanted to spend more time with his family.

Not to undermine the importance of family, but that phrase is typically code for “I don’t agree with the direction and future of the party and so I’m getting out now before things get really messy.”

The timing of Jeneroux’s announcement — just before the Carney government faced its first confidence vote on the budget — suggests he has at least some concern about party leadership.

That was certainly the case last year when Liberal MPs, including a dozen or so cabinet ministers, announced their resignations or retirements while former prime minister Justin Trudeau was still leading the party.

Trudeau’s popularity had plummeted to such an extent that a broad range of Grit MPs decided to announce their intentions to sit out the next election. Those departures, and a public denunciation by cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland, ultimately created the momentum for Trudeau’s own decision to step down.

Are more resignations in Poilievre’s immediate future? On Monday, the Toronto Star reported growing discontent in the Conservative party, with anywhere from a “handful” to 15 Tory MPs being “very frustrated” with Poilievre and his senior leadership team.

There was an underlying frustration created by Poilievre’s performance in the spring federal election, where he went into the campaign as the presumptive favourite and came out of it in second place. Losing his Ottawa-area seat only added to the concern that he was too coarse, too Trump-like to win the support of Canadians.

Poilievre spent the summer campaigning for the chance to continue leading the party. A byelection win in Alberta allowed him to keep his position as leader of the Official Opposition. However, he would still have to get the endorsement of party members at January’s convention.

Poilievre’s closest allies and advisers worked diligently to spin a narrative about how, after learning a tough lesson in the campaign, he would reinvent himself as a less gruff, more engaging political personality. At first, there was a softer tone being projected. However, by the fall, Poilievre was fully leaning into his brand as the pugnacious junkyard dog of Canadian politics.

The Tory leader alleged Trudeau likely should have been criminally prosecuted for various ethical transgressions but the “despicable” RCMP leadership declined to pursue criminal charges for political reasons. His inflammatory comments caused many anonymous sources within the Tory caucus to suggest Poilievre had outlived his usefulness as party leader.

Given the blowback that d’Entremont has suffered, there are unlikely to be more Tory MPs crossing the floor to join the Liberals. But additional resignations by Conservatives who would rather abandon ship than fight a leader desperate to keep his job does seem possible.

In many ways, additional resignations would become a much bigger problem than additional defections.

When confronted by a defection, leaders can always shift blame to the defector.

But a rash of resignations almost always creates the momentum for a leadership change.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com