NDP wins popularity contest by default after difficult years under Tories

Premier Wab Kinew can apparently do no wrong.

More than two years into its mandate, the Manitoba NDP government remains remarkably popular, according to a Free Press–Probe Research poll that suggests voter support for the government is not just holding, but holding firm.

At 53 per cent, NDP support is unchanged since September and well above where it stood when the party took power in October 2023.

That kind of staying power halfway through a first mandate is not entirely surprising. Still, it is impressive considering the NDP’s less-than-stellar record.

After all, this is a government that has not delivered on some of its biggest, most politically salient election promises: hospital wait times remain stubbornly long, emergency rooms are still congested, crime rates remain at historically high levels and the NDP has made little headway in tackling homelessness, addictions and mental-health issues.

Meanwhile, Manitoba’s books are nowhere near balanced — in fact, they’re heading sharply in the wrong direction as Finance Minister Adrien Sala is projecting a $1.6-billion deficit this year — more than double what was forecast in the spring (although the Probe poll was taken before Sala’s deficit update).

So why does the NDP remain so popular, even as results lag behind rhetoric? And why are we starting to see long-serving Progressive Conservative MLAs calling it a day?

Part of the answer is simple: comparison.

The PCs governed Manitoba for seven years, ending their run in 2023 tired, fractious and deeply unpopular. The Pallister-Stefanson era left a legacy of health-care strain, pandemic bitterness and a party that never recovered its footing.

Against that backdrop, the bar for the NDP was not set especially high. For many voters, the change itself — a different tone, a different premier, a different set of priorities — was enough.

Kinew, in particular, continues to benefit from that contrast. He communicates well, projects empathy and appears to be comfortable in the role.

In a political environment where voters are cynical and exhausted, the appearance of competence and relatability go a long way, even when outcomes fall short.

That helps explain why the Probe poll shows the NDP leading in almost every demographic group and in most regions of the province.

Winnipeg remains a fortress for the NDP, with 59 per cent support. However, what should really worry the PCs is what’s happening outside the capital. Rural Manitoba — traditionally conservative-leaning territory, except for the north — is essentially tied between the two parties.

That suggests Kinew’s appeal extends beyond the Perimeter Highway. It may also suggest something else: the opposition is failing to give voters a compelling reason to look elsewhere.

Right now, the Progressive Conservatives look rudderless. Partly leader Obby Khan may be earnest and hard-working, but he has yet to cut through with a clear, galvanizing vision or a sense that his party is ready to govern again.

In politics, perception matters. If voters don’t see a credible alternative, they tend to stick with what they know — even if they’re not thrilled with it.

That dynamic helps explain why veteran Tory MLAs are beginning to bow out.

Ron Schuler’s announcement this week that he will not seek re-election joins similar decisions by Kelvin Goertzen and Doyle Piwniuk. Each has his own reasons, but the broader political math is tough to ignore.

If the NDP wins again in 2027 — which is almost a certainty — PCs elected in that cycle would be staring at another four years or more on the opposition benches before getting a shot at government again.

For politicians who have already spent years in public life, that’s a long time to wait. When the path back to power looks narrow and distant, exits become more attractive.

None of this is to say the NDP’s popularity is invincible. And it’s unclear how long this honeymoon will last.

At some point, voters tend to expect results, not just reassurance.

Health care, in particular, remains the government’s biggest vulnerability. It was the NDP’s signature issue on the campaign trail, and it remains the yardstick by which many Manitobans will judge this government.

If wait times don’t come down in a meaningful way, patience will eventually wear thin.

But for now, the political reality is unmistakable. The NDP has the wind at its back, the opposition is struggling to find its footing and Kinew continues to enjoy the benefit of the doubt.

In politics, momentum is a powerful thing. The New Democrats have it. The Progressive Conservatives, at the moment, do not.

Until that changes, more Tory MLAs may decide that waiting another six years — or longer — just isn’t worth it.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca