Kinew’s NDP remains at the top two years in: poll But data collected before Monday’s grim fiscal update By: Tyler Searle Posted: 2:00 AM CST Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

Premier Wab Kinew can do no wrong, a new poll seems to suggest.

Support for the New Democrats shows no sign of waning more than two years after the party took power from the Tories.

The Free Press-Probe Research poll found support for the NDP has held steady at 53 per cent since September and remains up from 45 per cent at the beginning of its October 2023 mandate.

“The way things look right now, there’s a lot of wind in their sails and it looks like they would be in a pretty great spot to try to win another term,” Probe Research principal Curtis Brown said about the poll, conducted between Nov. 25 and Dec. 10.

“We’ll see what the next year brings, but it is remarkable just how consistent it is considering how much else has changed in the world.”

The survey, which included responses from a random sample of 1,000 Manitobans, found the NDP continues to lead in support from nearly all corners of the province and almost every demographic of voters.

The NDP has served half of its mandate while weathering tariffs on key sectors such as the steel industry, canola and pork; inflation and a sputtering economy — while maintaining voter support.

“I would say there is still some sort of honeymoon, but at what point do we say the honeymoon is finished after a wedding? Clearly, Kinew and the NDP continue to do well,” said Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor in political science at the University of Manitoba.

Winnipeg remains an NDP stronghold, closing out the year with 59 per cent support, up about two per cent from the September survey.

The Progressive Conservatives dropped two percentage points during the same period, and will enter 2026 with 25 per cent support in the city.

Adams noted the poll was conducted before Finance Minister Adrien Sala provided a mid-year fiscal update on Monday, which projects Manitoba’s deficit to more than double the estimate released in the spring. Manitoba is expected to be $1.6 billion in the red, Sala announced.

“I would expect that there might have to be some hard decisions over the next eight months.”

The political expert said he was most surprised by polling that shows the Tories and NDP tied at 43 per cent support among voters in rural and northern Manitoba.

People who live outside the capital city tend to lean more to the right, with certain areas viewed as Progressive Conservative strongholds, he said.

Adams pointed to the August byelection in Spruce Woods, in western Manitoba, in which the Tories narrowly defeated the NDP in a region traditionally viewed as a bastion of conservative support.

“That’s a noteworthy thing. That tells me that Wab Kinew has some popularity outside of Winnipeg, and it might also indicate some weaknesses of Obby Khan being the leader of the opposition party,” Adams said.

“Now, that’s just interpreting it, it’s not for sure, but I am saying that the PCs need to not only get back some ground in Winnipeg… but shore up their support outside of Winnipeg.”

The NDP continues to garner more support than the Tories in most demographic groups.

The poll determined the governing party has the backing of 56 per cent of women and 49 per cent of men. That’s compared to the Tories’ 28 per cent support among women and 37 per cent among men.

It’s a break from tradition for the PCs, who are typically more popular with male voters, Adams said.

“To have a breakthrough in a provincial election, the PCs have to even out that advantage.”

In addition, younger Manitobans are behind the Kinew team. Sixty-one per cent of people aged 18 to 34 back the NDP, compared to 29 per cent support in that age group for the Tories.

The PCs are marginally more popular than the NDP among people born outside of Manitoba, the poll found.

Manitoba Liberals, who had 11 per cent support in Winnipeg and six per cent support elsewhere in the province, must spend the next year building name recognition and support for new leader Willard Reaves, who was acclaimed in September, Adams said.

At the federal level, 43 per cent of Manitoba voters support the Liberals, while 38 per cent favour the Conservatives. That gap has widened slightly since September, when 40 per cent of Manitobans said they would vote Conservative.

The gap is even wider in Winnipeg, where 51 per cent support the governing Liberals compared to 28 per cent support for the Conservatives, the poll results show.

Outside Winnipeg, 53 per cent of Manitobans favour the Conservatives and 32 per cent like the Liberals.

“The Liberals are ending the year still in relatively good shape, relatively popular under a new leader and prime minister — but the next year, who knows?” Brown said, adding he’s surprised by how voters’ age influences support for the federal parties.

Voters older than 55 are much more likely to support the Liberals (58 per cent), while the Conservatives appeal most to people between 35 and 54 (34 per cent), particularly men, the poll found.

“That generational difference and where different groups of voters are going and what they are looking for, that’s something we’re going to continue to keep a close eye on in the coming year.”

The Probe survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent with 95 per cent certainty.

tyler.searle@freepress.mb.ca