The Blue Jays’ spring numbers don’t mean much but there are indicators that have value

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This article was published 26/03/2021 (1686 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Spring training statistics have no predictive value; they don’t mean anything at all. But they can still be fun to look at, and with the Blue Jays going into the final weekend of Grapefruit League games, now seems to be the perfect time to see who did what.

The Blue Jays are built to mash, with plenty of question marks on the mound, but it’s the pitching staff that has posted the most eye-popping numbers over the first 25 games of spring, leading the major leagues in ERA, WHIP and opponents’ batting average to this point.

Fourteen different pitchers have thrown a combined 50 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run, including bullpen hopefuls Francisco Liriano, Trent Thornton and Tim Mayza, who has allowed just one infield hit in 5 2/3 innings of work. Relievers David Phelps and Jordan Romano have given up just one earned run each and combined for 25 strikeouts over 11 2/3 spring innings.

Tyler Chatwood, signed as a free agent to be a high-leverage, late-inning reliever, had thrown seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit, before getting roughed up Friday night.

The rotation’s two lefties behind ace Hyun-Jin Ryu — Steven Matz and Robbie Ray — have posted ERAs of 2.00 or less and struck out at least a batter per inning.

Those are some tremendous results, and we haven’t even gotten to the two biggest stories of camp on the mound, young righties Alek Manoah and Simeon Woods Richardson.

The 23-year-old Manoah, the Jays’ first pick in the 2019 draft, has been the talk of the spring, throwing 7 1/3 shutout innings, allowing one hit while striking out 15 and walking none, though he has hit three batters. Woods Richardson, just 20 years old, has been almost as good. He’s thrown eight shutout innings, allowing four hits, with two walks and eight strikeouts.

Both of them were at the Jays’ alternate training site last year, so they weren’t among the young players who had no baseball in 2020, but neither one of them has pitched above A-ball yet. You shouldn’t expect to see them in the big leagues anytime soon.

On the offensive side of the spectrum, it’s a little surprising that on this power-laden squad, there’s only one hitter who has smacked more than a pair of home runs, and it’s more surprising that it’s Marcus Semien who, over 162 games, might be able to sneak into the top five on the team in homers. There are seven Jays with two big flies, including Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.

Guerrero’s second came Friday, an absolute laser beam that came off his bat at an electric 114.4 miles per hour. He’s done just about everything right this spring, hitting .471/.558/.824 in 35 plate appearances. That batting average would have been an even .500, but Cavan Biggio got deked by Bryce Harper on Friday on a line-drive that fell in front of the right fielder, and what should have been a base hit turned into a 9-6 fielder’s choice. The other out Guerrero made against the Phillies was a fly ball hit 402 feet, caught against the wall by centre-fielder Scott Kingery.

The most astonishing thing about Guerrero’s spring so far isn’t the average. It’s that he’s struck out only four times. That, more than anything else, is a spring training stat that really indicates something.

Joe Panik, a seven-year veteran and a 2014 World Series champion with the San Francisco Giants, believes that Guerrero’s low strikeout total, coupled with almost twice as many walks (seven), is significant.

“Right now, he’s seeing the ball well.,” Panik said. “In his mechanics, he’s slowing the game down. That means that he’s in a very good place mentally in his approach and physically in his swing. That’s something that can be a good indicator (that) a guy’s going to have success.”

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Those indicators from Guerrero have come as no surprise to Panik, who has been impressed with the 22-year-old since spring training began, back when Vlad was only 21. He thinks that this is the year that the young slugger fulfils his all-star potential.

“Watching him from the first day of camp, just the way he’s moving around, the attitude, the hunger in his everyday work, it’s translating onto the field,” Panik said. “You could just see it. You can sense it in him, that this is his time to make that jump, time to kind of take over, take the reins here.”

On the down side of the ledger, catcher Danny Jansen has come to the plate 37 times and his 1-for-3 Friday finally pulled his batting average up over .150, while Rowdy Tellez’s three spring doubles came over the course of his first seven at-bats. Since that third double, he’s gone 5-for-46 with 12 strikeouts.

Most spring training numbers don’t mean a thing, good or bad, but at least the things that do matter — throwing strikes, strong strike-zone discipline — have nearly all been going in the right direction for a lot of the Jays as spring training winds down.

Mike Wilner is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @wilnerness