From Alejandro Kirk to the playoffs, the Star’s top nine bold predictions for the Blue Jays’ season

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This article was published 30/03/2021 (1684 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Major League Baseball teams spend more than four months every off-season laying the groundwork for the upcoming year and then all it takes is a couple of injuries for those well-orchestrated plans to go up in smoke.

The regular season hasn’t even started yet and already the Blue Jays have lost key starters Robbie Ray and Nate Pearson to injuries, while Kirby Yates is out for the year and George Springer is questionable for opening day. A crystal ball isn’t even enough to make accurate predictions in this sport, but we can still have some fun trying to do the impossible.

Last year’s predictions of Teoscar Hernandez becoming the Jays’ breakout player of the year and the Rays winning the American League East, before moving on to the World Series, were on point. Not so much for the suggestion that Canadian Mike Soroka would be in the mix for the National League Cy Young Award.

There are going to be some swings and misses in this piece, but there should be at least a few singles up the middle as well. Here are the Star’s top nine bold predictions for the upcoming Jays season:

Alejandro Kirk will displace Danny Jansen as the No. 1 catcher by the end of May and finish the year as a fringe candidate for rookie of the year.

Kirk spent the spring competing with Reese McGuire for the backup spot, but now that he’s on the roster, the 22-year-old is going to be tough to keep out of the lineup. Jansen begins the year as the undisputed No. 1 guy, but Kirk’s potent bat will eat into his workload before the end of April. A month later, Kirk will be starting more games than he sits. The defence still isn’t great, but it should be good enough and the numbers Kirk produces in the batter’s box will turn him into a key piece.

Teoscar Hernandez will prove he is the real deal by leading the club in home runs for the second consecutive year, which will apply pressure on the Jays to explore a contract extension with him next off-season.

Hernandez was so good last year it’s easy to forget he has yet to put together a full season. Hernandez has enjoyed strong starts — and strong finishes — before, but he’s never produced over 162 games. That will change this season as Hernandez proves the changes he made over the last two years have turned him into a different hitter. The 28-year-old will surpass 35 homers and start making those comparisons to Edwin Encarnacion seem more appropriate.

Hyun-Jin Ryu will be placed on the injured list at least once and how the rotation fares during his absence will dictate whether the Jays are playing meaningful baseball in September.

Ryu avoided injuries during last year’s shortened season, but he has been to the IL 10 times in his career and history will repeat itself after last year’s reduced workload. The Jays have a decent amount of starting depth, but they lack top-end talent, and how the team fares without Ryu will determine the organization’s fate. It won’t be pretty, but I still think it will be good enough, as long as Ryu’s departure is measured in days or weeks. Anything longer than that and this team is going to be in trouble.

Julian Merryweather and Tim Mayza will become the surprise X-factors out of the bullpen and settle into the top relievers’ roles in front of Jordan Romano, somewhat mitigating the loss of Yates.

Mayza wasn’t expected to crack the opening-day roster, but he pitched so well this spring the Jays didn’t have any choice but to give him a spot. His velocity is up and per club officials he looks better than he did before getting hurt and missing all last year following Tommy John surgery. Merryweather has never been able to stay healthy, but there wouldn’t be anything bold about predicting another stint on the IL. Even though I see his health as a coin flip, Merryweather has all the tools to become an impact arm. The opportunity is there. He just needs to seize it, and if he stays healthy for most of the year I think he will. Mayza will, too.

The first game at the Rogers Centre will be played against the Texas Rangers on July 16.

There has been increasing optimism about a return to Toronto, but it’s not going to happen any time soon. The decision on when to leave Florida for Buffalo will be made by the players, but when the team heads north of the border will be determined by the federal government. This Rangers series follows the all-star break, which is an ideal time to change locales and by then enough people should be vaccinated that crossing the border will not be as big a concern.

Sloppy defence and mistakes on the basepaths will continue to haunt this team and make the standings a lot tighter than they should be.

The Jays have spent a lot of time this spring talking up their improved defence. Springer was signed to upgrade centre field, Marcus Semien was added to improve the infield, but the defence is still weak. There are question marks all over the field and there’s no easy path to fixing these flaws. The only above-average defenders are Jansen and Lourdes Gurriel Jr and an inability to limit mistakes will cost the Jays more than a few victories.

Openers will become the norm and no starter will surpass 160 innings.

Two years ago, injuries, trades and a lack of quality options meant only one starter — Trent Thornton — tossed more than 100 innings. Expect a repeat in 2021 with frequent changes being made to the starting staff throughout the year. Ray and Ryu are the only proven starters and look for the Jays to leverage their deep bullpen by having relievers start a lot of games, even though that’s not the plan they are entering the season with. Toronto still hasn’t announced its starter for Game 2 even though it’s just days away, and that trend should continue throughout the year.

The bullpen will be good enough to save the rotation, but only for the first couple months as fatigue and injuries create the need for multiple moves before the deadline.

The Jays have enough depth in the bullpen to offset some of the rotation’s deficiencies. A nine-man ’pen will become a regular thing, but even with all those arms, the lack of innings from the rotation will eventually take its toll. Expect the bullpen to start strong, before the heavy workload becomes a problem. A few of these guys are going to get hurt at some point, and the Jays will be in the market for relievers at the deadline.

The Jays will win a wild-card spot and enter the post-season for the second consecutive year. An early exit will renew the club’s desire to upgrade the rotation with another round of spending.

The AL East is up for grabs. The Yankees have a lot of questions surrounding their rotation, but so do the Jays, and New York’s overall depth will still rule the day. The Jays will be left to compete with the Rays for a wild card and while these teams will be neck and neck for most of the year, Toronto’s ability to take on salary at the deadline will give it the edge in a race that should go down to the wire.

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Blue Jays Season Preview

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MONDAY: Pete Walker, ‘pitching whisperer’

TUESDAY: Bold predictions, and the prospects

WEDNESDAY: Vladimir Guerrero, George Springer and other new faces and Star roundtable

THURSDAY: Wilner: Opening day a welcome distraction; Chisholm: Blue Jays in it for long haul and roster breakdown

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca