It’s all in the numbers: The Jays’ pitching has been a pleasant surprise, the fielding has been predictably poor

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This article was published 26/04/2021 (1660 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Blue Jays are almost a full month into their season and while the sample size is small, it’s never too early to take a look at the numbers that got them to this point.

A 10-11 record isn’t the start this team envisioned but things could have gone a lot worse after an endless stream of injuries. The pitching has been a pleasant surprise, the offence has yet to break out and the fielding has been predictably poor.

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Here are some of the early season stats that stand out through the first four weeks of the year for a club that is three games back of the Boston Red Sox for top spot in the American League East (all statistics through Sunday):

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Walk percentage of 18. Guerrero’s walk rate is more than double what he produced each of the last two years. His 16 free passes are tied for third in the majors and he has found a way to improve his plate discipline without sacrificing much aggressiveness. Guerrero leads the majors with nine first-pitch hits. When teams give him something to hit, he’s making them pay; when they don’t, he passes the baton.

• Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk: A combined .327 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). The Blue Jays are getting next to nothing offensively out of their catchers. Jansen has two hits in 41 at-bats while Kirk has only been marginally better with six hits and three walks in 36 plate appearances. Their .327 OPS out of the catcher’s spot is the lowest in baseball. There is no solution other than waiting it out but it wouldn’t be surprising if Kirk starts eating into more of Jansen’s playing time if his struggles continue.

• The pitching staff: 3.04 ERA. The Jays are first in the AL in earned-run average, with the lowest mark the team has produced through the first 21 games of a season. The next closest is the 1985 team, which had a 3.27 ERA and later went on to win a franchise-record 99 games. The ERA seems due for a regression but, despite the lack of high-profile adds during the off-season, the Jays are likely to finish April with the best pitching staff in their league.

• Cavan Biggio: 0 hits on pitches over 95 m.p.h. Biggio is off to a slow start and his struggles against hard throwers provide a partial explanation. The third-year infielder has seen 43 pitches with velocities of 95-plus m.p.h. and has yet to register a hit on any of them. Opposing teams are trying to exploit that by throwing those pitches 15.4 per cent of the time. Only Bo Bichette and Jansen have seen a higher percentage. This is a recurring problem; Biggio hit just .162 on 95-plus velocity during his first two seasons. The Jays are hitting .268 on those pitches as a team, fifth in the majors.

• The holds: 7-1 record when leading after six innings. When the Jays take the lead, they don’t usually give it back and the bullpen deserves the credit. Toronto relievers rank first in the majors with a 2.10 ERA despite injuries to key pieces such as Kirby Yates, Julian Merryweather, Jordan Romano and Tyler Chatwood. Manager Charlie Montoyo has more depth to work with than ever before and he has done a nice job guiding this group through the early stages of the season. The Blue Jays are 7-1 when leading after six innings and a perfect 6-0 when leading after seven.

• The leadoff spot: .274 on-base percentage. The only team with a lower OBP out of the leadoff spot is Cleveland at .270. Marcus Semien deserves most of the blame after his sluggish start, but he was recently demoted in the lineup and likely won’t be back at the top any time soon with George Springer set to return this week from a quad injury. Considering Springer was signed to take over the No. 1 spot, this shouldn’t be a problem for much longer.

• Starting pitchers: 10. The Jays have used more starters than any team in baseball, with Tampa Bay second at nine. Injuries are the main reason why this number is so high and it’s a testament to the club’s depth it has the lowest ERA in the AL despite the revolving door. But the number of viable starters isn’t limitless and, if the injuries continue, the Jays are eventually going to run out of arms. With Nate Pearson and Thomas Hatch rehabbing, it will only be a matter of time before two more guys get added to this list.

• The defence: -13 outs above average. The Jays arguably have been the worst fielding team in the majors. Their -13 OAA ranks last, as does their -10 runs prevented. Bichette and Biggio have combined to make 11 errors on the left side of the infield and there have been some adventures in the outfield, particularly in left with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Springer’s return should help but poor fielding likely will remain a problem throughout the year. One positive is that Guerrero looks better by the day at first base.

• The injuries: Eight players on the injured list. As of late Monday afternoon, the Jays had eight players on the IL, which was tied for the fifth most in MLB. That number doesn’t include Teoscar Hernandez, who has been on the restricted list following a positive COVID-19 test, and it also doesn’t account for the guys who were hurt and have since returned, like Romano, Chatwood and lefty Robbie Ray. Health will be a factor all year but it’s worth pointing out the Jays aren’t even the hardest-hit team in their division. That title belongs to the Rays, who currently have 12 players on the IL.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca