Will Alberta’s election campaign go federal?

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This article was published 01/06/2023 (894 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Political tremors emanating from Alberta Monday night should serve as a warning shot for the rest of Canada.

Expect the United Conservative Party’s victory in Alberta’s provincial election to embolden the combative style of politics espoused by right-wing politicians across the country, especially Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Danielle Smith, who has been Alberta’s premier since winning the UCP leadership last October, secured a majority government Monday, winning 49 of Alberta’s 87 seats and earning 52.6 per cent of the popular vote. The NDP, led by Rachel Notley, Alberta’s premier from 2015-19, won 38 seats with 44 per cent of the vote.

Ms. Smith called the UCP victory “another miracle on the Prairies,” in her victory speech, echoing former premier Ralph Klein’s turn of phrase from 30 years ago after his Progressive Conservatives won in 1993, even if Mr. Klein’s “Alberta Advantage” austerity policies appear quaintly moderate when compared with the UCP.

Ms. Smith hardly walked on water to win the Alberta vote. The UCP’s loss of 11 seats and the defeat of several of its cabinet ministers would be a heavy blow for most political parties, especially when realizing only 1,866 votes in five Calgary ridings were the difference between Ms. Smith being premier or a scapegoat for an NDP triumph.

She has spun her way out of far stickier political spots before in her career as a radio pundit and firebrand politician, most notably during the recent election campaign.

On May 18, less than two weeks prior to the Alberta vote, the province’s ethics commissioner found Ms. Smith had contravened the Conflict of Interest Act for speaking with her justice minister about criminal charges against a pastor who was involved in protests at the Alberta-United States border against COVID-19 restrictions, a cause Ms. Smith supports.

The UCP also shielded Ms. Smith from the media during the election campaign, allowing only one question per reporter during her appearances. The tactic might have helped Ms. Smith’s rise in the polls during the latter days of the campaign as the restrictions prevented her off-the-cuff diatribes that hurt the UCP early on.

While Ms. Smith’s victory will no doubt encourage Mr. Poilievre — a politician cut from the same antagonistic cloth who also limits access to journalists — it might be difficult to export the UCP’s provincial success to the federal level.

Rural Alberta’s staunch support of conservative causes is the stuff of legend. There are provincial constituencies that have elected nothing but right-of-centre candidates since the evangelical Social Credit party gained power in 1935, and the NDP earned only two wins outside of Edmonton or Calgary on Monday night.

Decades of prosperity have been those voters’ rewards, even if revenues from Alberta’s oil industry deserve some of the credit.

They have also become objects of derision from outside Alberta for supporting candidates with extreme views, such as Jennifer Johnson, who made national headlines during the campaign when she compared trans children to feces.

Ms. Smith had to denounce Ms. Johnson’s statements and remove her from caucus, although Elections Alberta tallies the win under the UCP column.

Ms. Johnson’s public comments aren’t the first divisive remarks from an Alberta politician nor will hers be the last.

It’s that perception of Alberta’s radical politics the rest of Canada has that keeps the province’s Conservative MPs on the opposition benches and frustrated by their lack of power.

Mr. Poilievre must address that dilemma, one his predecessor, Erin O’Toole, was unable to solve, before searching for answers from Ms. Smith’s playbook of electoral success.