Expect the unexpected at the African Cup of Nations

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This article was published 26/01/2024 (957 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

You know you’ve got a tournament of some significance when the host nation’s manager is sacked in the midst of it.

Such was the fate of Jean-Louis Gasset, previously of Bordeaux and Saint-Etienne, when the Ivorian Football Federation gave him the boot and installed one of his assistants, former Elephants international Emerse Fae, on an interim basis, and on his 40th birthday.

A 4-0 drubbing by Equatorial Guinea will have that effect when it happens inside a refurbished, 60,000-capacity ground in the capital – especially when Ivory Coast has spent roughly 580 billion CFA francs (about CDN$1.3 billion) to build four brand-new stadiums, update transportation systems and revitalize social infrastructure in a bid to cement the legacy of the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations.

An Africa Cup of Nations, incidentally, that still includes Ivory Coast.

The 2015 champions snuck into the knockout stage mere hours after Gasset’s exit, courtesy of Morocco’s 1-0 triumph over 2012 winners Zambia. Consequently, Fae’s first assignment will see his side face unbeaten Senegal — the team that last lifted the gold-plated trophy.

Now, based on current form, momentum, squad depth and just about every advanced metric, this round-of-16 match should really be over before it starts. Based on this Cup of Nations, however, none that matters one jot.

Since day one, upsets have been coming so thick and fast at this competition that expected results are now rare enough to be classified as upsets in and of themselves.

Perceived heavyweights Algeria, who finished atop the podium only four years ago, are already out, eliminated at the group phase after losing 1-0 to Mauritania in Bouake. Their neighbours Tunisia have departed as well. Combined, the two North African teams won exactly zero matches in Ivory Coast.

Then there’s Ghana, which started out by losing 2-1 to Cape Verde and finished off by drawing 2-2 with Mozambique. They’re gone, too. Cape Verde, meanwhile, topped a group that also included Egypt and were rewarded with a last-16 match against Mauritania they really should win. Then again, maybe not.

Oh, and the storylines at this event have been irresistible.

Cameroon goalkeeper Andre Onana, already having a forgettable debut season at Manchester United, jetted out the day of his country’s opener with Guinea and wasn’t even selected to the matchday squad. Four days later he got the start against Senegal, played terribly, and was dropped for what proved to be an absolutely epic clash with Gambia that the Indomitable Lions won 3-2.

He’ll surely be back on the bench for today’s tantalizing showdown with Nigeria. Then again, who knows.

One thing we can say with certainty is that Egypt talisman Mohamed Salah will not be involved in Sunday’s clash with DR Congo. The Liverpool forward suffered a torn hamstring against Ghana and is currently rehabbing back in the U.K.

Given the nature of the injury, he should reasonably be expected to miss at least a month. Then again, we can’t know for sure. The 31-year-old has indicated he’d like to rejoin the national squad at some point before the final on February 11, assuming his teammates can make it there without him.

Should Egypt, sans Salah, advance into the quarterfinals, they could well take on Equatorial Guinea and the tournament’s best player to date.

Emilio Nsue scored twice against Ivory Coast, bagged a hat trick against Guinea-Bissau and goes into the knockouts as the Cup of Nations’ leading goalscorer. He’s also 34-years-old, a right-back-convered-winger-converted-striker, and has played everywhere from England to Cyprus to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Now playing his club football in the Spanish third tier, he might be the closest thing to a modern Roger Milla.

Someone you won’t find anywhere near the top of the scoring chart is 2021 MVP Sadio Mane.

The Al Nassr attacker’s only tally so far was an insurance goal in stoppage time against Cameroon, although the fact Senegal eased through their Group C engagements meaningful offence from the 31-year-old should be enough to spook the rest of the field. The Lions of Teranga are getting contributions from everywhere.

Not so Morocco, who seem increasingly reliant on the Hakim Ziyech-Achraf Hakimi tandem. Though that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Both players were outstanding in their Group F matches. They’re clearly enjoying their football, and at times they’ve seemed almost to toy with the opposition. Morocco’s weakness, and it might be their only one, is a cutting edge up front, especially late in games that are there to be won.

Should they find it, the Atlas Lions — last champions in 1976 — might just do their part in setting up a dream final versus Senegal. Of course, given what we’ve seen so far in Ivory Coast, it almost certainly won’t happen.

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Burkina Faso riding its remarkable luck to next month’s showpiece? If there’s a tournament where it could happen, it’s this one. Cameroon overcoming its interpersonal nonsense and reaching at least the semifinals? Why not.

And hosts Ivory Coast, regrouping with a second manager and realizing glory in front of their adoring fans? Somehow, it doesn’t seem all that ridiculous.

This, after all, is an Africa Cup of Nations where anything – absolutely anything – can happen.

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