Dancing with the enemy unlikely

Opinion

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This article was published 27/02/2015 (3879 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

BRANDON — How do porcupines mate? Very carefully, and only when absolutely necessary.

It’s an old joke, but an apt metaphor for discussions that will likely occur between NDP leadership candidates Steve Ashton, Theresa Oswald, Greg Selinger or their emissaries over the next several days.

Each of the three campaign teams has released delegate counts they claim prove they have momentum and the best chance of winning next weekend’s leadership contest. The campaigns’ numbers are wildly inconsistent with each other, but none of them points to a first-ballot victory by any candidate.

The likelihood the convention will require a second ballot, through which delegates will choose between the top two vote-getters from the first ballot, creates the potential for an intense round of negotiations for the endorsement and delegates of the third-place finisher.

It could elevate the least popular candidate to the role of potential king- or queen-maker, giving him or her the power to determine who Manitoba’s next premier will be.

In theory, that is how the outcome of the NDP leadership contest will be determined. In reality, it will be a far more complicated exercise, fraught with obstacles that will make the process and outcome much more difficult to predict. Those impediments become readily apparent if we imagine how the negotiations would unfold.

If Selinger finishes third on the first ballot, it is extremely unlikely he would be willing to endorse Oswald after everything she and her fellow Gang of Five mutineers have said about him. It is even less likely he could convince his delegates, especially those in organized labour, to vote for her.

If he endorses anybody, it will be Ashton, not because the Thompson MLA offered him something, but rather because it would deny Oswald the victory she craves. Spite and revenge are powerful motivators, and Selinger has ample justification to want both.

If Ashton is eliminated following the first ballot, he will be in a strong bargaining position. He could demand, and likely get, the title of deputy premier and the cabinet position of his choice from both Selinger and Oswald. The real question is whether he could deliver his supporters’ votes en masse to either candidate.

If Oswald does not survive the first ballot — the most plausible scenario at present — she would likely have a lengthy list of demands in exchange for her endorsement. She would almost certainly want a commitment that she and her fellow Gang of Five members will be restored to caucus and cabinet, along with uncontested nominations for the next election. She would also demand job protection for all staff who supported her.

Would Selinger or Ashton agree to those requests? In Selinger’s case, it might save his job, but he would be surrounded by ministers and staff who covertly plotted against him and then openly campaigned for his ouster. Could he trust any of them?

Beyond that, would he be willing to dump existing cabinet ministers who were loyal to him in his moment of need to make room for the Five? Could he lead the NDP into the next election with the rebels as candidates, knowing the Tories’ campaign ads will use the audio of the Five’s attacks against him? Would his delegates allow him to make a deal with the mutineers? Would they vote for Oswald on the second ballot?

The answers range from unlikely to not a chance.

Ashton could agree to Oswald’s terms and then defend the deal as an earnest attempt to unite the party’s warring factions, but there is no compelling reason for him to do so. He knows it is virtually impossible for Oswald to make a deal with Selinger, and that most of her delegates would refuse to support Selinger even if she did endorse him. The majority of them would go to Ashton. He knows that, and so does she.

In many leadership contests, the winner is often the candidate who made the best deal at the opportune moment. While that could happen next weekend, the odds are against it. It will require extremely careful negotiation and some degree of certainty that delegates will go along with any arrangement that is made.

With all the obstacles standing in the way, porcupines may have it easier.

 

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon.

deverynrossletters@gmail.com Twitter: @deverynross