The debate’s the thing

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 06/08/2015 (3688 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In the traditional election coverage notebook, the televised leaders debates are given close attention by journalists, opinion leaders, pundits and pollsters.

Usually held at the midpoint or beyond in a typical 37-day election campaign, the debates provide an opportunity for parties and the leaders to make inroads with the electorate.

Not that a huge number of the electorate watches them, but those who cover elections certainly do and from them, they then assess a leader’s capabilities based on their performance in front of the camera.

They then write about them, discuss them on news programs and dissect them in stinging op-eds and editorials.

In other words, leadership debates can make or break a campaign.

Canadian federal politicians have been relying on televised leadership debates in both official languages since 1984, although the very first televised debate was held in 1968. The reliance on the leadership debate to change the focus in elections is seen as another way in which Canadian elections have become more about leadership, rather than about policy. A leader’s appearance, charisma and ability to think on his or her toes is now at the centre of the political evaluations. And for heaven’s sake don’t be boring.

A classic example of how televised debates have changed campaigns is the first-ever televised presidential debate in 1960, in which a sweating Richard Nixon, sporting a five o’clock shadow, faced off against charismatic and handsome John F. Kennedy. Guess who won that one? It opened up politics to the television campaign and underscored the importance of crafting a public image.

In the 1984 federal leadership debate, a smooth Brian Mulroney took on then prime minister John Turner over the issue of patronage. Turner said he had no option in his decision to make patronage appointments, to which Mulroney responded, “You had the option, sir,” (often misremembered as “you had a choice, sir”). Mulroney’s index finger pointed squarely at Turner’s face. “You could have said no.”

That, for many political observers, was the quintessential knockout punch and Turner, who was ahead in the polls, saw his lead dwindle, eventually losing to Mulroney. It was a campaign manager’s dream and nightmare.

More recently, the NDP’s Rachel Notley in Alberta used the provincial leadership debate to demonstrate her political chops. Following that night in April, the tide turned and she won a historic majority in the Alberta legislature, ending the Conservatives’ 40-plus-year reign.

In this federal election, once again Prime Minister Stephen Harper is changing how Canadians, and more to the point, media, look at elections. This is the leader who invoked the permanent campaign — meaning electoral campaigning never stops, even after an election — particularly as his minority government attempted to build its base to become a majority in 2011. He’s also the leader who made it clear he will sidestep the mainstream media, relying instead on Twitter and YouTube to get his message out.

Now, Harper has refused to participate in the traditional leadership debates organized by the broadcasters’ consortium, and instead has opted for independent debates. The first of these is scheduled for tonight, sponsored by Maclean’s magazine, Rogers and CityTV. It will be available on Maclean’s Facebook page and on YouTube.

So how is this a change-maker in Canadian politics?

First, it further fragments an already fragmented television audience. In years past, the political leadership debates would be held on all major Canadian channels and so those more interested in reruns of Friends would be forced to rely on the cable channels. Now, it is easy to ignore in the 300-channel universe of Seinfeld reruns and reality shows. While the audience share for the program put on by the broadcasters’ consortium has steadily dropped over the years, expect an even smaller share this time around, if it even happens.

The timing of this first debate is also a game changer. It’s in the midst of the dog days of summer as Canadians feverishly relish the last drop of sunshine before heading into the dark, long days of winter. Unless there’s a countrywide rainstorm forcing folks inside tonight, don’t count on the water cooler talk tomorrow to centre on who said what zinger.

As well, this is really early in the “official” campaign. Yes, the permanent campaign does mean electoral platforms have been trotted out as the NDP, Liberals and Conservatives try to find the sweet spot for polling numbers. But having a debate so early in the formal election means not much can be said about platform, but a lot can be said about performance.

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That works both ways though. While Harper can use his familiar lines about inexperience targeting both the NDP and Liberal leaders, Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau can attack the Conservatives’ record, particularly on the economy and on government accountability.

But I think more than anything, Harper and the Conservatives hope Canadians just won’t pay attention to any of it. That they’ll tune out all that political noise and go about their business. Because that can keep them in power.

Shannon Sampert is the Free Press perspectives and politics editor.

shannon.sampert@freepress.mb.ca Twitter: @PaulySigh