Arctic sovereignty more urgent

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 12/06/2017 (3052 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Regardless of what version of O Canada people sing, one part has never changed: Tennyson’s descriptive phrase “the True North, strong and free” has endured over the years.

It was originally intended to apply to all of Canada. Today, Canadians tend to think of “the North” as the Arctic, or more broadly, areas north of the heavily populated or cultivated lands of Canada. A narrower view would simply include the three territories. Yet another might describe it as areas lacking ground transportation infrastructure, including Canada’s parts of the Arctic Ocean.

Now that the U.S. has withdrawn from the Paris climate accord centred on voluntarily reducing greenhouse gases, it is left to the rest of the world to assign value to research, facts and potentially disastrous effects.

Why does it matter? It matters because of the effects of global warming, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s rejection of the reality. It matters very much to indigenous people who have lived in the North for centuries and whose traditional way of life is disappearing. It matters to virtually all Canadians, some of whom may not directly see the impacts, yet who will have empathy for those whose farms and homes flood.

Those who regularly travel by air will be affected by global warming, as it manifests itself in the form of strong and regular “clear air turbulence.” Plants will find their preferred ecosystem has moved, and wildlife will find they must move to follow their habitat. A difficult life will result for polar bears: their preferred food is seal meat. Although the seals may prevail, the lack of ice for the bears to use as their hunting blinds will force many to learn new hunting techniques.

In Cold War days, both Canada and the U.S. (primarily the U.S. at the time) established small bases across the high Arctic, as well as radar facilities capable of detecting approaching aircraft. Flying in the Arctic required, and still does, a radio call to advise Nav Canada when approaching the Canadian Air Identification Defence Zone from the North.

Now, however, a change hangs over us, partly thanks to Trump, who walked away from an international agreement on climate change because he doesn’t want to believe climate is changing. Parts of Florida have already experienced flooding. Interestingly, Trump’s home city of New York will be significantly affected by flooding in some of its most famous areas, particularly the lower area of Wall Street, as well as parts of Brooklyn.

Climate change guarantees Canada’s Arctic regions will see more open water over longer periods. Concurrent with this, we can expect to see more Russian and Chinese aircraft and ships operating closer to Canada’s territory. The race is on: for Canada to defend its interests and “win” implies new Arctic-capable ships, revitalized air transport and fighter facilities in the high Arctic (e.g. Eureka) and drone and augmented radar capabilities.

There will be invasions of sorts other than military. Canada needs to prepare for rapid growth in tourism, including more ships taking tourists through the Northwest Passage. Beyond addressing sovereignty issues immediately, there is an urgent need for environmental management programs and safety measures to protect tourists who have likely never had to deal with the realities of Arctic life. Management and protection of Arctic wildlife will need new attention, as tourists, wildlife and fish all interact.

Hudson Bay opportunities will grow, despite past difficulties such as the grain terminal at Churchill. However, considerable research and planning will be needed to be ready to take advantage of these new opportunities.

Ground access to Churchill is critical if the port is to function effectively. At present, air is the only sure access. The existing rail line was constructed on large areas of permafrost, which is now in the process of softening as the result of the climate warming. The rail line or road will need to be surveyed in the context of this recent phenomena, to locate a viable route and appropriate construction techniques to permit long-term access at reasonable cost.

Not only will the Hudson Bay and straits be open for a longer shipping season, there will soon be open water through the Northwest Passage that will accommodate ships carrying export goods from the Prairies, accessing the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic and Arctic.

Climate change research suggests that, by 2030, most of these factors will have reached the point where “the North” will be an entirely new economic and social order.

The required environmental, social and physical infrastructure needs to be planned and established in the short term if “the True North, strong and free” is to remain so through the 21st century.

Jim Collinson is a consultant who focuses on connections among environment and economy and a particular interest in climate change. He held senior positions in the Manitoba and federal governments and was chairman of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee.