Scheer would fare no better with Trump

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 02/07/2019 (2338 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If the current public opinion polls are accurate, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer could be prime minister in four months or so. Of course, one of the critical challenges for any new prime minister is how best to manage our vital relationship with the United States.

That challenge is particularly acute in the age of Trumpism in Washington. Indeed, no other U.S. president in the modern era has posed more problems for a Canadian political leader than U.S. President Donald Trump. Bigly!

Just think about the difficulties and drama that surrounded the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations, the steel and aluminum tariffs for “national security” reasons, the intense pressures around Huawei (and 5G technology) and the crisis in Venezuela. Add to that the lack of U.S. co-operation on the whole Meng Wanzhou affair and the increased number of migrant border crossings into Canada.

To say that bilateral relations today are challenging is surely a gigantic understatement. Is it any wonder that Trump has not made an official visit to Ottawa? Can you imagine the political and public headache that such a trip would cause a Canadian government?

As was recently witnessed with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s June 20 Oval Office meeting, Trump is an extremely difficult person to deal with. At one point during the media spray, Trump said that he would not take off the table the possibility of imposing fresh tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S.

What was Trudeau supposed to do with that? Tell him how damaging that would be to the Canadian economy and to the overall Canada-U.S. relationship? Trump doesn’t care.

A big part of the problem is that Trump is mostly a transactional type of political leader — it’s about what you can do for the United States and Trump, and not the other way around. Simply put, Trump wants a victory defined strictly on Trump’s terms.

For whatever reason, he has it firmly imprinted on his mind that Canada has been “ripping off” the U.S. for the past 30 years — that any bilateral or trilateral free-trade deals were all designed to disadvantage the U.S. If you listen to Trump tell it, he’s tired of America being the loser.

Furthermore, this Trump mindset significantly complicates things for Canada. There is just no easy way of managing bilateral relations when one side begins from the premise that the other is a cheat.

Trump is also of the view that he can easily pound Canada into submission, if need be. He knows full well that Canada does not have a great deal of leverage at its disposal. And he believes that Canada needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs Canada — especially from an economic and security standpoint.

So, what would Scheer do differently? What is his strategy for taming Trump? And would he embrace Stephen Harper’s U.S. approach of a “we won’t take no for an answer” posture? Good luck with that!

In his early May foreign policy speech in Montreal, Scheer stressed that the Trudeau Liberals have dropped the ball when it comes to the U.S. He stated that it is critically important to restore strong and robust relations with the U.S.

In one part of his address he remarked, “The Canada-United States relationship transcends the personalities of those who occupy each respective office. And its longevity is crucial to our respective peace and prosperity. It must be strengthened.” Yes, but how, exactly?

Part of Scheer’s U.S. strategy is to take a page out of Trump’s own political handbook. Translation: a Scheer government would also move the Canadian embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and also participate directly in the U.S. ballistic missile defence scheme.

But it’s hard to fathom that placating Trump is going to serve Canada well. That will only further embolden Trump to continue with his bullying ways and tweet-storms. And the last thing that Scheer wants is for the Canadian public to view him as Trump’s lapdog.

The trick is to somehow find a way to allow Trump to claim victory when, in fact, he’s actually given up something. Admittedly, that’s not an easy thing to do. But part of it has to do with leveraging his political base and Republican lawmakers in Washington against Trump and in defence of Canadian interests.

The fact of the matter is that Scheer can no better manage relations with Trump than Trudeau has been able to do. It’s a near-impossible task for any world leader.

No one should be fooled into thinking that making nice with Trump is a recipe for bilateral success. It will only bring grief and harm to Canada over time.

Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.