Blue Jays mailbag: Promoting prospect Alek Manoah the only logical choice with potential reward outweighing risk

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This article was published 25/05/2021 (1634 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The decision to promote right-hander Alek Manoah from the minor leagues boils down to one key point: The 23-year-old gives the Blue Jays their best shot at beating the New York Yankees on Wednesday night in the Bronx.

Manoah is a better option than Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch or Nick Allgeyer. He makes more sense than fellow flamethrower Nate Pearson, who is still working his way back from a minor shoulder injury and has only been stretched out to three innings. He’s the preferred pick over a bullpen day of overworked relievers.

The native of Florida might still be a little rough around the edges, but he’s an upgrade over what the Jays currently have. For a team with aspirations of contending, that matters, especially when the upcoming matchup is against a division rival and comes on the heels of a six-game losing streak.

Some might call it an act of desperation considering this is a guy who has tossed a grand total of 35 innings in his professional career. I call it the logical choice and one where the potential rewards of catching lightning in the bottle outweigh the risks of disrupting his routine with Triple-A Buffalo.

Manoah’s promotion is a polarizing topic this week. His dominance has divided the fanbase into two categories: The call him up crowd and the group that says leave him alone and let him develop. There are arguments for both sides and this week’s mailbag provides the perfect opportunity to dive a little deeper into the subject.

As a friendly reminder, questions for the mailbag should be submitted to bluejaysmailbag@gmail.com or by reaching out to me on Twitter @GregorChisholm. The following questions have been edited for length and grammar:

I hope Manoah does great, but this seems too fast. He’s made what, 10 starts? Simeon Woods Richardson has made at least three times that many. Rushing Manoah could be setting him up to fail and what does this say to the other prospects who have put in more time?

— Otto, Markham

The Jays are obviously taking an aggressive approach with Manoah, but he’s not being rushed as much as some might think. This isn’t a guy who was plucked out of high school and tossed into the fire, he went through a competitive program at West Virginia University. When he was drafted at age 21, he was expected to move through the system quickly with some experts suggesting he could be ready to pitch out of the bullpen on Day 1.

The situation is at least somewhat comparable to Marcus Stroman, who was taken in the first round of the 2012 at the same age as Manoah and arrived in Toronto less than two years later. Both starters wrapped up their draft year with a brief stint at low Class-A Vancouver. They later graduated to the majors after an equally short stay in Triple-A. The difference is what happened in the year between. Stroman pitched a full season at Double-A New Hampshire while Manoah spent last season at the alternate training site because of the pandemic.

It’s impossible to know how a minor league season compares to the forced experiment that was the training site and we might not understand the ripple effects that program had on prospects for quite some time. But the Jays, and a lot of other teams, aren’t treating it like a lost year. They insist progress was made and if the early returns on Manoah are to be believed, they might be onto something.

I agree with the delicate flower comment. You can’t be a major leaguer if your confidence disappears completely when faced with adversity or a bump in the road. He seems to have a strong head on his shoulders. What are your impressions with him?

— Thomas, Prince Edward Island

Thomas is referring to a comment on Twitter where I stated: “Prospects don’t have to be treated like delicate flowers. If Manoah struggles, he’ll figure out what he needs to work on, go back down and try again.” My impressions of Manoah are still somewhat limited because there hasn’t been much media access since he arrived on the scene. Like you, I’ve only seen him pitch on video and while he seems very confident in interviews, that doesn’t guarantee he will remain that way on the field.

Look, is this situation ideal? Obviously not. Teams prefer to see prospects go through adversity on their way to the top. How players bounce back from struggling, the adjustments they make and the ability to handle the mental anguish that comes with the lows, reveals a lot about their character. Some guys show up having never experienced those issues and then don’t know how to handle them when they occur at the big-league level.

In a perfect world, Manoah would be riding the highs and getting through some of the lows in the minors. But this isn’t a controlled environment, it’s baseball, and who’s to say Manoah can’t work through that in the majors? Even if he can’t, there is no shame in going back down to Triple-A with a better idea of what it will take to be successful. If a supposed setback like that ruins Manoah, he probably didn’t have much of a shot in the first place.

What should we be expecting from Manoah’s debut? Is he on a pitch count?

— James, Halifax, N.S.

There are three things I’ll be watching for on Wednesday night: The break on Manoah’s slider, the sporadic use of his changeup and his fastball command.

Manoah gets a lot of strikeouts on his slider but one knock on the pitch is that it tends to level out. There’s lateral movement, but occasionally there isn’t much downward action. This was apparent on video during his three starts for Buffalo and while Manoah can get away with that in the minors, big leaguers are less likely to swing through the mistakes.

The changeup is still a work in progress and not something that he goes to on a regular basis. The addition of a third offering is key to his long-term survival as a starter, so he’s going to have to mix that in from time to time to keep hitters guessing. Whether he can get away with working on that pitch in the majors remains to be seen.

Walks haven’t been an issue for Manoah, he allowed just three free passes vs. 27 strikeouts across three starts for the Bisons. But they weren’t a problem for Pearson either until he joined the Jays. The intensity of the big leagues creates another layer of stress that can lead to overthrowing. Manoah has also hit four batters this year, plus three more this spring, so he can get wild at times.

Why waste Manoah in the majors? It’s a development year for the whole team anyways.

— @jOnO6ix

I don’t know what team you’re watching but the rebuild is over and the Jays are trying to contend. The front office didn’t spend upwards of $200 million last off-season to be content with a fourth-place finish. They made the expanded post-season a year ago and they want to be part of the regular format in 2021.

That might not happen, but with well over 100 games left, it would be foolish to write them off now. The Jays with a 23-23 record aren’t out of anything, their second half of the schedule is easier than the first and all they need to do is hang around to justify another round of upgrades at the deadline. So instead of asking why waste Manoah in the majors, I’d be asking why waste his bullets in the minors? He can only throw so many innings this season and based on need, they might as well happen in the majors.

I agree with your assessment of the starting pitching being the root cause of the pen’s issues, but Charlie Montoyo’s approach is magnifying the issue. Unless there’s a righty/lefty match-up issue, there’s no reason to take out a reliever who just put up a zero in less than 15 pitches just because it’s the next inning. Arm usage occurs not just from pitches in games, but the roughly 30 warm-ups (20 in pen and eight when called to mound) every time a reliever gets loose, regardless of if they’re called into the game. Let a reliever go two innings more often and save on total pen arm usage.

— Andy, Wilmington, Del.

I’ve been critical about Montoyo’s bullpen management in this past, so this may come as a surprise, but I didn’t have a huge issue with the way he managed his relievers last week. Injuries and a lack of rested arms led to Rafael Dolis being pressed into high-leverage duty immediately upon his return from the IL. I didn’t have a problem with taking Tyler Chatwood out of Sunday’s save opportunity because he had already allowed a run, loaded the bases and just walked a batter on four pitches. I didn’t even think going with Travis Bergen over Jordan Romano was that terrible considering Austin Meadow’s numbers against lefties. It’s not a move that should be made again, but one could argue it was worth a shot.

But your complaint is one I can get on board with, especially considering the Jays prefer to avoid using their relievers on back-to-back days whenever possible. Chatwood and Romano have been used in consecutive games just three times this year. If there’s a good chance they will be held out the following day, it seems logical to increase their workload by just a bit during the games they are available. Romano’s outing on Monday was a perfect example. He required just 12 pitches to get through a scoreless ninth and likely should have had enough left in the tank to come back out for the 10th.

Is it too early to think about qualifying offers for Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien? I think they should both get one (unless the Blue Jays are out of it and they are dealt at/before the deadline).

— Pete, Ottawa

It’s too early for the Jays to make any firm commitments but it’s never too early to speculate and at this point it would seem like a no-brainer to extend qualifying offers, which were valued at $18.9 million for 2021, to both. The cliche in professional sports is that there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and while that’s not always the case, these two have enough upside to justify the risks.

It’s worth pointing out that the current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire on Dec. 1 and while the negotiations are expected to drag on, there’s always the possibility that an agreement will be reached well before then that changes the rules surrounding QOs, or gets rid of them entirely. So, this format still isn’t guaranteed.

Semien’s hot streak in May has led to a lot of people on sports talk radio and social media to call for a long-term extension. I wouldn’t go that far because prospects Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin are getting closer to the big leagues and there are still long-term questions surrounding Bo Bichette’s ability to remain at short. I wouldn’t rush into a four or five-year deal because of roster construction issues, but if there’s a chance to get Semien back on another short-term deal they should jump at the opportunity.

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Hi Gregor, what changes to the roster do you see coming as Patrick Murphy and Thomas Hatch are both on rehab assignments?

— Felix, Toronto

Hatch is eventually going to find his way into the rotation and after Manoah’s promotion the Jays can afford to remain patient and gradually build him back up from a right elbow injury. Murphy likely gets optioned to Buffalo and becomes one of the relievers who is frequently shuttled back and forth between the big leagues and minors. The bigger issue is how the Jays are going to fit these two, along with four other injured players, on the 40-man roster when everyone is healthy.

The Jays currently have a full 40-man roster with six players on the 60-day IL, including Hatch and Murphy. They need to open a spot for Manoah and space will have to be created before any of the injured guys can be activated, which is going to cost some players their jobs. Guys on the bubble would appear to be Jeremy Beasley, Tommy Milone, and — once Alejandro Kirk is healthy — back-up catcher Reese McGuire. Other relievers such as Bergen, Joel Payamps, A.J. Cole and Ty Tice will have to pitch well to keep their spots while a fringe prospect Zeuch could be at risk as well.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca