Blue Jays mailbag: Canadian men’s team off to good start in Olympics qualifier, bringing back Semien among this week’s topics

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This article was published 01/06/2021 (1627 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Baseball Canada’s bid for a spot at the upcoming Tokyo Games got off to a good start when three pitchers, including veteran Andrew Albers, tossed a no-hitter in a Game 1 win over Colombia. It got even better a day later with an upset victory over the most decorated program in Olympic history.

Canada advanced to the Super Round at the Baseball Americas Qualifier with a 6-5 win over Cuba on Tuesday night. Cuba, a two-time gold medalist that had never finished off the Olympic podium, was eliminated from even making the trip after its record dropped to 0-2.

It was another huge win for the Canadian but their road to Tokyo is far from over. This week’s eight-team tournament was divided into two divisions. The top two teams from each section advance to the Super Round and their records from the round robin carry over. Two more games are played and the team that finishes first advances to the Olympics. The second and third seeds qualify for a last-shot tournament later this month.

There are a lot of familiar faces on this Canadian team. Guys who have dedicated their lives to the program. Former Blue Jays draft pick Ryan Kellogg tossed 3 2/3 scoreless innings and veteran John Axford picked up the save in the victory over Cuba. Former New Hampshire Fisher Cat Connor Panas chipped in with a pair of hits and two RBIs and Michael Crouse homered. They deserve some attention this week and their games can be watched via CBC’s streaming app.

With the important stuff out of the way, it’s time to open the weekly Blue Jays mailbag. As a friendly reminder, questions should be submitted to bluejaymailbag@gmail.com or by reaching out to me on Twitter @GregorChisholm. The following questions have been edited for length and grammar:

Marcus Semien is proving his 2019 season was no fluke, and his defence is unassailable. Yet I haven’t heard anything about the Jays making an effort to retain him past this year when he becomes a free agent. With the core group creating a four-to-five-year window, is it a given that Semien will want to test the market? I know Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin are in the system, but they’re merely prospects, there’s an obvious hole at third that Groshans or Martin could fill, and I think having at least one veteran infielder is an asset.

— David, Vancouver

If I was Semien, I wouldn’t be wasting my time thinking about a new contract until the end of the season. A year ago, Semien appeared well on his way to securing a contract that would exceed $100 million as one of the league’s most coveted free agents. That changed after a down season, but a big reason Semien sought a one-year deal was for the opportunity to re-enter the marketplace with improved numbers.

Semien isn’t going to offer a hometown discount, at least not now. Keep in mind this is a veteran player who was recently elected to the MLB Players’ Association executive subcommittee. The collective bargaining agreement is set to expire Dec. 1 and both sides are digging their feet in preparation for what should be contentious and lengthy talks. Semien won’t be motivated to sign for anything other than top dollar because he won’t want to undercut his peers.

It’s possible the Blue Jays could come in with such an aggressive offer that Semien would have to think twice, but that’s not how this front office typically operates. It took months of talks before George Springer and Hyun-Jin Ryu were convinced to sign on the dotted line. They only did so after exploring what other teams had to offer, the same will happen with Semien. Edwin Encarnacion could be considered the exception, but that was five years ago, and lessons have been learned since.

Semien is a valuable player and a great fit on this year’s team. Despite the skills, though, he’s not someone I would make a long-term commitment to. You’re right, Groshans and Martin are just prospects, but they have a chance to be pretty darn good. I also don’t like the idea of committing multiple guaranteed years to a second baseman when it’s possible that position will have to be used to transition someone like Bo Bichette down the road. I’d keep the focus on pitching.

Bichette needs to hit at an elite level to be a shortstop since his defence will be average at best. That’s not happening. Do you think that if the Jays are in a playoff race and Bichette’s offence still isn’t elite they would consider switching him and Semien?

— Hadler

No chance. If the Jays had any intention of moving Bichette this season, it would have happened before spring training. He’s not going to switch spots now. Not for Semien and not for a mid-season trade target like Colorado’s Trevor Story. The commitment has been made to Bichette for at least another season and the front office isn’t about to orchestrate an abrupt heel turn on one of its franchise players.

This situation will be revisited during the off-season, just like it was last year when the Jays made a run at Francisco Lindor. By then, the Jays will have a season’s worth of data — and remember this is Bichette’s first full year — to aid their long-term planning. Players the calibre of Bichette don’t bounce around and he wouldn’t be asked to make the switch without having a full camp to get acclimated to a different spot.

The calling of balls and strikes seems to be even worse this year. Baseball has stats on everything; does anyone record the accuracy of umpires’ individual and collective performances? What does it show and is there any accountability by MLB for consistent miss-calls?

— Brian, Regina

MLB has lots of data on umpires, it just doesn’t publicly share the findings and there’s good reason for that. Umpiring assignments for prestige events like the all-star game and post-season are supposed to be based on merit, but we’d be foolish to think that politics and seniority aren’t factored in as well. MLB can’t publish a report if the best umpires aren’t always calling the biggest games.

Instead, we’re left to evaluate the umpires on our own and there’s a lot of good analysis out there. A study out of Boston University examined more than four million called pitches across 11 seasons (2008-18) and found the average error rate for umpires was 12.78 per cent. The good news is that the bad call ratio has been in a steady decline for awhile. It was 16.36 per cent in 2008 and dropped to 9.21 by 2018. More recently, Fangraphs detailed that while this year’s umpires were calling fewer balls strikes, they were also calling fewer strikes within the zone. Overall, the difference has been negligible.

This likely won’t be a problem for much longer. The technology is still being refined but it feels like only a matter of time before an automated strikezone is introduced. MLB’s motivation goes well beyond accuracy, with the human element removed, the league would have a tool to make minor tweaks within the game. Too many strikeouts? Just change the settings of the robot umpire.

“When that comes, it’s really easy to make adjustments in the strike zone,” MLB consultant and former executive Theo Epstein told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale of an automated system. “We’re trying to optimize contact. So, the way the strike zone used to be a little bit wider and a little bit shorter, which was better for contact. Now, it’s really tall, but narrow . . . You can shrink the zone a little bit, especially the upper boundary, which might be better for inducing more contact.’’

I am not a big Nate Pearson fan. I realize that he does not have too many innings under his belt, but I am not that enamored by uber velocity (it is usually fleeting). Control and brains are more important for me. With that in mind what are your thoughts on trading Nate Pearson for Max Schrezer. Pennants fly forever, well unless you are Robbie Alomar.

— Manoj, Goleta, Calif.

Not in a million years. Scherzer would be a perfect fit, and as a pending free agent for a Nationals team that is currently in last place, he’s also shaping up to be one of the summer’s biggest trade chips. Your interest makes sense, but I’m not giving up almost six years of Pearson for two months of Scherzer, and the Jays aren’t likely to either.

Big-name prospects rarely get moved for rentals, especially during an era when teams are obsessed with cost certainty and years of control. It’s rare to see top-50 ranked prospects traded unless the player coming in return has multiple years remaining on his contract. The likelier candidates are guys who may yet break into that upper class but have some developing to do.

Some of you might be thinking, what about David Price? The Jays traded away Daniel Norris as part of that package when he was ranked Baseball America’s No. 18 prospect. Pearson currently is No. 14. But by the time Norris was moved, the shine was already starting to wear off. He was 3-10 with a 4.27 ERA for Buffalo and questions were emerging about his upside. The Jays aren’t there yet with Pearson.

The minor leaguers more likely to shopped are the ones further down the list. Right-handers Adam Kloffenstein and Eric Pardinho, infielder Miguel Hiraldo, outfielder Dasan Brown, those kinds of players. Pearson should be a non-starter because this team isn’t going to peak for another couple years and it doesn’t make sense to mortgage a big piece of the future for a short-term fix.

Where are the Jays going to get help for the bullpen? Kirby Yates and David Phelps are done for the year. Julian Merryweather and Ryan Borucki are still on the IL. Tyler Chatwood has lost the zone. You have got Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano left and a bunch of guys named “who.” Too soon for trades?

— @sweatyrunner, Toronto

It’s too early for big trades, but some minor tinkering should be expected. Keep in mind, this is a front office that acquired Jason Grilli at the end of May when it was attempting to contend in 2016. That’s the kind of move that gets made around this time, a reclamation project, someone who could use a fresh start. The Jays are already attempting something like that with the recent addition of veteran Carl Edwards Jr. He won’t be the last experiment.

The adds that come with more certainty will have to wait, but it’s become clear that if the Jays want to contend, the entire pitching staff will have to be addressed, not just the rotation. Merryweather offers upside, but his medical history means he can’t be trusted. Anything he provides the rest of the way should be considered nothing more than a bonus. Borucki comes with similar durability concerns. Without those two, and the previous loss of Yates, there just isn’t enough left to survive for that much longer. If Romano goes down for an extended period, this team will be in trouble.

It’s frustrating to watch late-inning leads being squandered time and time again. When is Charlie Montoyo going to be held accountable for these blunders?

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— @carmanbeaver

Accountable by whom? Montoyo’s bullpen decisions have been the biggest talking point surrounding this team for the better part of two weeks. It’s not like this hot-button topic isn’t being addressed by the media, difficult questions are being asked after almost every game.

If you mean accountable by the front office, these guys are all in it together so it would seem strange to make a change now. The days of a Jays manager making decisions on his own are over. While the club insists Montoyo has final say on everything, there is a collaborative approach to how lineups are constructed, which players can be used and when, and how to handle a bullpen.

Obviously, some in-game decisions fall on Montoyo’s shoulders. Leaving Chatwood in to walk five batters in Sunday’s blown save against Cleveland was a terrible look, but one that becomes lightly more understandable considering the lack of options and the last time Chatwood was taken out, it backfired in spectacular fashion. It’s completely fair to judge managers on how they use relievers because it’s a big part of their job description, and it’s a situation that will have to be monitored all year, but Montoyo isn’t about to become the fall guy in the near future.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca